The Reagan Recovery, The Fact-Checker Cometh, Will The Real Mitt Romney Please Stand Up?, and Good News and Bad News from FiveThirtyEight.
Welcome to the Daily Sausage.
Obviously, there was a debate last night, although calling it a debate is somewhat of a misnomer.
First up, Charles P. Pierce recounts the story of Ronald Reagan’s first debate in which he looked like a symptomatic Alzheimer’s patient (which he probably was) in 1984 against Walter Mondale.
Reagan, of course, went on to win.
In fact, the both incumbents noted for bad first debate performances (Reagan ’84, Bush ’04) went on to win re-election.
Here’s the problem: Mitt Romney “won” the first debate by lying out his ass. Not just slight fibbing or subtle manipulation of the truth; Mitt Romney went on national television in a debate with the incumbent President and lied his ass off.
First up, let’s tackle Romney’s statement that as part of his plan to repeal Obamacare, individuals with pre-existing conditions would still be able to purchase health insurance.
In fact, Romney spoke for 38 minutes last night, and in the process told 27 lies.
And here’s some more fact-checking from Politifact, The Fact Checker, and FactCheck.
All of things brings into focus a central question: who is Mitt Romney?
Is Mitt Romney the Massachusetts moderate that supported gay rights and passed Romneycare? Is he the “severely conservative” former governor that rejected 10:1 cuts to new revenues? How much will the Congress he’s dealing with influence his positions? Would a Democratic Congress make him more liberal, and a Republican Congress more conservative?
Throughout the entire campaign, Mitt Romney has been Jell-O. He’s refused to be nailed down on anything. He tells every group what they want to hear. He has vague policy plans with no details that can be accurately evaluated.
Will the real Mitt Romney please stand up?
Ultimately though, the debates don’t matter. As Nate Silver noted, no candidate has ever come back from greater than a one or two point deficit to win because of a sterling debate performance. Romney is down by three to five. The people that watch the debates are, generally speaking, informed voters. They know who they’re voting for. Nothing either candidate says will sway them. If anything, it’s more akin to watching a football game than it is an actual political debate.
Moreover, we still have three more debates and thirty more days. Remember: Mitt Romney has to sweep the swing-state table to win, whereas Barack Obama only needs a handful.
