Hello everybody, and welcome to the Eastern Conference half of the half-season NBA review. The Western Conference part can be found here and I must say that the last week’s results have only solidified the opinions I gave on the West. Especially Spurs over Clippers and the two big wins for Golden State over quality opposition.
The East has 2 killer teams, 4 quality teams , 2 teams which will make the playoffs by default (probably), and a lot of mediocrity. The West is a little thinner at the top end, but definitely has more OK teams hanging around at 50% or just above. 9th and 10th in the West are every chance to have a better record than 7th and 8th in the East.
Without too much further ado, I’ll go through each team in the East in order of the current standings, which means Miami ON TOP, the Knicks somewhere in the middle and apparently some guys from Charlotte impersonating a basketball team are in 16th, although frankly it isn’t a very good impersonation.
THE EAST
Miami Heat
Crasstalk regulars probably know that I’m a Heat fan. The most entertaining team to watch whether you enjoy the athletic spectacle put on at the offensive end or the total commitment and effort at the defensive end, or both. If anything, the entertainment factor is Miami’s Achilles heel, as they rack up far too many turnovers trying to make highlight reel passes and drives instead of making safe plays. But I wouldn’t have it any other way.
All that needs to be said is that Miami is one of three teams this season to win a back-to-back-to-back sequence (along with fellow contenders Chicago and Oklahoma City). But Miami’s was all on the road. Against playoff teams Atlanta and Indiana, and the Milwaukee Bucks who had upset Miami twice earlier in the season. And they won all 3 by double digits, racking up 20-30 point leads and then sitting the Big Three for most or all of the last quarter (Wade averaged a mere 24 minutes a night during the back-to-back-to-back, Bosh and James just over 30 minutes each). Thus began an 8 game streak of double digit wins which remains alive, with the most recent win being the strangulation of the Linsanity-charged Knicks. Miami hasn’t played better since the Big Three era began.
Still a bit vulnerable to teams that shoot lights-out from 3 point land; all defensive schemes are trade-offs, and Miami invites everyone to shoot from beyond the 3 point line, under the theory that no team is going to win a best of 7 series that way (which is all Miami cares about), even if it means occasional regular season losses.
Answered questions: They have been able to improve on last year (when, for all the criticism, they did make the Finals). Individually, the Big Three are better. As a team they are better. Chalmers and Cole are better than last year’s point guard rotation. The bench is better. It’s all just… better.
Unanswered questions: Same as last year. Can they put all this “better” to work in the clutch in the Finals? They can win the Conference (and should) and it won’t answer one single thing. It’s Miami’s title to win… can they take it?
Chicago Bulls
27-8 (compared to the Heat’s 27-7), missing reigning MVP Derrick Rose for more games than the Heat have missed Dwyane Wade and having played slightly more road games than the Heat has. Ultra consistent, at least as committed defensively as Miami and certainly more disciplined, the Bulls have every chance of repeating as the #1 seed in the East going into the playoffs.
In theory they’ve improved too. Rose is only getting better. Noah likewise (after some uncertain early form, as many guys had coming off the lockout and which was inevitably exaggerated in the media). Rip Hamilton, when fit (I’ll come back to this) is an improvement on the spare parts the Bulls tried last year at shooting guard. Another year of the same guys getting more experience playing the same successful game plan together. But they needed to improve, seeing as they lost 4-1 to Miami in the conference finals last year.
Fitness could be an Achilles’ heel for the Bulls. Derrick Rose and Rip Hamilton have missed a number of games with chronic injuries and Luol Deng is playing through the same wrist injury as Kobe Bryant. At the same time, while teams like Miami, San Antonio and Dallas have made a point of playing their stars for reduced minutes whenever possible during this compressed regular season, Tom Thibodeau has done things such as playing Derrick Rose for 44 minutes out of 48 against cellar-dwelling Washington on the 2nd night of a back to back. Thibodeau is playing “assume an ideal universe” with his stars in an attempt to lock in the #1 seed and home court advantage throughout the playoffs, and we shall see if the gamble pays off.
Answered questions: Last year was not a fluke.
Unanswered questions: Have they improved enough to beat Miami? They lost narrowly to them in their 1 meeting so far this season, and haven’t had the kind of dominant form against other Eastern Conference playoffs teams that Miami has. But when push comes to shove, like Miami, we won’t really know the answer until the playoffs.
Indiana
Throw a blanket over Indiana, Philly, Orlando and Atlanta. Please.
These 4 teams (currently spread between 21-12 and 20-14) have been trading position amongst themselves the entire season so far, and will keep doing so. All have strong points. All can win a first-round playoffs series and 2 will, because they will almost certainly be playing amongst themselves. And then whichever 2 win through will probably get crushed by Chicago and Miami (although Philly has a reasonable chance against the Bulls, and I would like to keep Orlando away from Miami if I had a choice).
Indy finds itself in 3rd at the All-Star break, after winning 4 in a row to break a 1-5 streak that had the usual short-memory media types asking what was going wrong. A very even team with scoring and talent at every position:, led by 1st time All-Star Roy Hibbert at centre, savvy free agent signing David West at PF, rising 2nd year player Paul George at the 2 (next big breakout star, this kid, seriously), an OK point guard in Darren Collison and of course Danny Granger at the 3. Indy sometimes seems to rise and fall on Granger’s shooting percentage.
Wildcard: Indiana currently somehow has so much salary cap space available they’re currently below the minimum they’re required to pay. What they do with this salary cap space (bearing in mind the need to keep some of it for big paydays for Hibbert and George) will help determine whether they challenge for the title or not. A challenge this year is not impossible with the right deal. If not this year, then the near future.
Answered questions: Their young talent is the real deal. Granger will never be the consistent shooter they really need him to be. Can win on the road (11-8) as well as at home.
Unanswered questions: That salary cap space. How high is the limit for Paul George and Roy Hibbert?
Philadelphia
The Sixers have been in 3rd most of the season, but a 3-7 run in the last 10 games (and a 7-8 road record) have dropped them to 4th.
Every story you see about the Sixers reminds you that they are a team without a true star (Andre Iguodala, 1st time All-Star, is the closest they have), that they have 6 players averaging over 10 points a game, that leading scorer Lou Williams is actually coming off the bench as is 3rd highest scorer Thaddeus Young, that they are the best defensive team in the NBA. All of this is true, and what it adds up to is a team which has been playing above itself and just doesn’t have the sheer class or talent to break through the best of the best. Ultra consistent because they don’t rely on 1 or 2 players to score and aren’t at the whim of off-nights or a particularly good defensive shutdown job by one guy, but an ultra-consistent B+ kind of team that can’t really play at A. Sorry Philly fans. 4th is about right. You’re Chicago without Derrick Rose.
Answered questions: Defence, discipline and a deep bench really can get you a long way in this league.
Unanswered questions: Is anyone on this roster the breakout star they need to become an A team, or will they have to blow it all up if they want to take the next step?
Orlando
All anyone wants to talk about with Orlando are ridiculous trades for Dwight Howard.
To get it out of the way, I think In all probability they’ll hold him to the end of the year and try to keep him with their ability (due to the arcane nature of the salary cap rules) to offer him more money than anyone else, plus the catharsis of sacking Otis Smith, possibly the worst GM in the league. For the sake of this review I’ll assume Dwight stays, it’s impossible to know how Orlando will look if he goes.
Orlando’s game plan remains the same: Dwight Howard drawing attention inside so that the array of 3 point shooters on the outside can get clear shots if Dwight can’t get through, and then Dwight can try to rebound the misses anyway. Simple but it works as long as Dwight does. At the defensive end, unfortunately, the plan is all too often for multi-time Defensive Player of the Year Dwight Howard to defend while the other guys kind of mill around. The Magic’s reasonable defensive stats are a tribute to how good Howard really is.
Despite the trade commotion, and a brief slump of about 4 terrible games which caused media and fans to lose their minds as if they’d never seen a good team have a couple of bad games, Howard is playing as well as ever and Orlando is not a bad team. Ryan Anderson has been a revelation, the team’s 2nd best player. Jameer Nelson and Hedo Turkoglu continue to underproduce and to be huge drags on the Magic’s salary cap space.
Answered questions: Dwight Howard really is that good and that worthy of all the trade demand and can carry a team to the playoffs no problem and the Magic can beat any team in the league on a good day but geez the trade talk is boring. No, Lakers fans, the Magic is not going to gift you Dwight Howard for a bunch of has-beens and 3rd rate bench players, quit asking.
Unanswered questions: Can all the underachievers on the Magic find their best form again for the playoffs? Will Dwight still be on the team by the playoffs?
Atlanta
The conventional view is that they’re inconsistent. Even their coach says it sometimes. I don’t share this view. They’re “inconsistent” because they rarely seem to go on big winning or losing streaks, because they do things like beat a full strength Miami at the start of the season and then lose to a Miami missing James, Wade and Miller, but if you look at their schedule just about all their losses are to playoffs teams. They consistently beat other teams and have had a very strong schedule to date. With Al Horford, I would speak of them as contenders. With Horford injured, they do seem to be a bit weak against the top playoffs teams in either conference, but still beat everyone else. Their success in the absence of Horford shows how good the team really is. Like Indiana, this is a team I can see gunning for the title next year… just not this year.
Josh Smith in past years would be in the dictionary under “inconsistent” too, but was a bit of a snub from the All-Star Game this year. He’s cut down on the stupid long-range jump shots and has been consistently excellent. Smith and Joe Johnson have done a terrific job keeping the team going in Horford’s absence.
Unanswered question: Are they really contenders with no change other than Horford returning? Without Horford, can they keep winning in the second half of the season and get home court advantage for the first round of the playoffs?
New York Knicks
Atlanta are 20-14. The Knicks, one spot below, are 17-18. There’s a gulf here. Of course, before Jeremy Lin, the Knicks were 8-15. The gulf is crossable. I don’t think it will be crossed, but it’s not impossible.
A brief recap of the Knicks’ season goes like this: they used the amnesty clause to ditch their only real point guard so they could bring in defensive juggernaut Tyson Chandler at centre. Chandler has been a great fit, stiffened their defence considerably and has been super-efficient on offense too, very high percentage of shots made. But without a point guard or any salary cap space for hiring a decent point guard, their offensive plans didn’t work despite having two multi-time All Star forwards in Carmelo Anthony and Amare Stoudemire. Hence, 8-15. Then Jeremy Lin, a prospect on the verge of being cut (having already been cut by Golden State and Houston- whoops!) got a chance for serious minutes and ran with it with both hands to become one of the biggest sporting stories of years as the Knicks won a bunch of games behind him. I trust I don’t need to explain further.
Anyway, even with Lin and with J.R. Smith cheap for the rest of the season (Smith took the Knicks deal cheap because he was stuck in China for the first half of the season and wants to showcase himself for a big free agent deal next year, they can’t afford to keep him for next year), the Knicks are not contenders. Sorry. The bench is still weak and a scouted Jeremy Lin will be good but not as effective as he has been for his first dozen games. They’re on the same level as an Orlando, including the serious salary cap problems. Really need to cross the gap and finish 6th if they are to have a chance of winning a playoff series.
Answered questions: Mike D’Antoni’s system makes the right guy look great, but it still needs the right guy, and Lin is the right guy in the way that no-one else on the Knicks list was. And without the right guy, Mike D’Antoni’s system makes talent like Carmelo and Stoudemire look like crap (a problem D’Antoni never had to face when he had Steve Nash, of course).
Unanswered questions: What if… the NBA had allowed the Lakers-Houston-Hornets trade to happen, with Chris Paul going to the Lakers? Houston signed Jeremy Lin expecting to get rid of a spare point guard in that trade, and would have kept him if that roster spot had indeed emptied as planned. How low could New York have gone if Lin was still in Houston and not saving basketball in the Big Apple?
Boston
15-17 but in the playoff spots. Sigh. The East is not deep his year.
A nice run a few weeks ago gave hope to Celtics fans everywhere, but they’ve settled back to about where I see them for the rest of the season (subject to trades). The rest of the season will continue to feature mediocrity with just enough big wins to keep the fans happy and nostalgic about the heyday of their own Big Three, and then a first round playoffs loss.
The old guys are just too old now. Pierce has a couple of years left as a starter, Garnett and Allen could still play off the bench for someone for another year or two, Jermaine O’Neal is just collecting a paycheck now. All these contracts expire at the end of this season. The only question is whether Boston tries to trade any of them, or just prepares for free agency at the end of the year. Complicated by the word that Boston doesn’t want to rebuild around Rajon Rondo (due to his perceived lack of communication and leadership skills), the biggest talent they have under 30.
Answered questions: The old guard did not have enough left in the tank for another go around.
Unanswered questions: What next?
Special bonus “it would never happen, would it?” trade scenario which is the best scenario I’ve heard all month: Rondo, O’Neal and the two 2012 1st round picks they hold for Nash and Gortat. Phoenix kickstart their rebuild with a young star point guard and 3 picks in the 1st round of this year’s draft. Boston go all-in on winning now, and end up with Gortat long-term plus a clean salary cap slate for free agents. A lineup of Nash, Allen, Pierce, Garnett and Gortat would have to be a wildcard contender for winning the title… if Boston and Phoenix have the guts to try it.
Cleveland
At 13-17 and let’s be honest: if Anderson Varejao didn’t get injured, they would have been every chance to overtake Boston for 8th. Cleveland has not played like a team that wants another lottery pick, but rather a team that has rebuilt its salary cap situation, acquired a new young star to build around (Kyrie Irving, who should be leading the Rookie of the Year race) and wants to get a winning culture going from the word go. Until Varejao got hurt, they were doing it, but the injury highlights their lack of depth.
Expect to see Cleveland in the playoffs next year and to try and make a splash in this year’s free agency circus. For the rest of this year, expect to see Cleveland hold onto 9th and for Irving and Tristan Thompson to continue to impress.
Answered questions: After playing only 11 games in college, people doubted the selection of Kyrie Irving at #1. Not anymore they don’t. Sir Charles Barkley: “[Lin] has only been playing for a week… Kyrie Irving is terrific and he’s going to hand it to him and if Ricky Rubio wants some, he can come get some too.”
Unanswered questions: Can crazy Cleveland owner Dan Gilbert actually improve his team in free agency with that salary cap space? He was never able to get any real stars to play alongside LeBron James, and the time while Irving is still on his rookie contract is probably the best chance Gilbert will get to load up.
Milwaukee
If Philadelphia is Chicago without Derrick Rose, Milwaukee is a poor man’s Philly: defensively focused, lacking in star power, very consistent but without even the average offensive talent that Philly has. To some extent, see what I wrote for Cleveland but substitute “Bogut” for “Varejao”. Milwaukee was a real shot for 7th or 8th, and then Bogut got hurt. Yet again.
The “Limbo Bucks” aren’t bad enough to get a high lottery pick and won’t get that bad with the current players. They also have very little scope for improvement, If everything goes right, they can get a playoffs spot (not this season, though) and get smashed by a top seed. This is not desirable. The Bucks need to get out of limbo.
The only interesting thing to happen to the Bucks was a negative- veteran Stephen Jackson was benched by coach Skiles for arguing with him, following which Jackson decided to lambast Skiles in the media and publically ask to be traded. Milwaukee only traded for Jackson during this off-season, a trade he was apparently never happy about… reminding everyone that just because you can trade an NBA player against his wishes, it isn’t necessarily wise (for the receiving team, anyway).
Answered questions: Milwaukee needs Bogut to compete, but Bogut can’t stay healthy.
Unanswered questions: Not really any. Milwaukee’s situation is as plain as day, much like Phoenix in the West. And like Phoenix, do they have the guts to do something about it?
Detroit
Terrible. A team collecting high draft picks while waiting out terrible contracts (Charlie Villunueva, we’re looking at you). Will continue to be terrible for the foreseeable future. Not as terrible as the Wizards or Charlotte, but that is not necessarily good (less chance of a top pick, and it’s due to aging overpaid veterans and not growing young talent). Seriously, not much to say here unless I want to make an analogy comparing Detroit the basketball team to Detroit the city and make people mad at me. No questions.
Toronto
Has been terrible, will continue to be terrible for THIS season but will be watchable again once Andrea Bargnani comes back from injury and have a real future. New coach Dwane Casey has managed to get Bargnani and the team to defend, and Bargnani was in career-best form before being hurt. Meanwhile, young star DeMar Derozan has started to come good in Bargnani’s absence after an early-season slump, and Jose Calderon is having an excellent year as well. Add these to the last year’s #3 pick Jonas Valanciunas (who is playing in Europe this year- very well, by all reports) and whoever the Raptors get in the draft this year and maybe a free agent small forward and suddenly the Raptors are an interesting team next year, as well as being a veritable United Nations on the floor.
But for this year? With Bargnani they’ll probably pass Detroit, that’s about all.
Unanswered questions: It can be easy to look good as “the guy” on a bad team. Are Bargnani and Derozan as good as they currently seem to be?
Answered questions: Still at least a year away from relevance.
New Jersey
Since the bad luck whereby Brook Lopez broke his foot just before the start of the season, the Nets immediately traded for veteran big man Mehmet Okur and promptly watched him go down as well, the Nets have not looked like competing on a regular basis. Despite star point guard Deron Williams, promising rookie shooting guard Marshon Brooks and greatly underrated power forward Kris Humphries- he doesn’t suck at basketball because he briefly married Kim Kardashian or because he came across as an asshole on a reality TV show produced by the aforementioned Kim Kardashian- the Nets have too many holes in the team. With Lopez back for the 2nd half of the season, expect the Nets to win more often.
Of course, this season is just marking time until the Nets move to Brooklyn for next season and try to lure Dwight Howard to headline the new era alongside his buddy Deron Williams. The alternative is that Dwight and Deron end up elsewhere (Dallas, probably) and the Nets are left with huge salary cap space, a new Brooklyn home and no team. Either way, not much that happens this year to the Nets is very relevant except for fixing the trade value of the guys who will be leaving to clear salary cap space for Dwight. And so all questions are kind of pointless.
Stranger than fiction: Deron Williams gave an interview early in the season saying he hates the Nets’ home court, thinks it gives the Nets a home court disadvantage, and is glad they won’t be playing there past the end of this season. What’s to hate about a basketball court? Everyone’s on the same court, all the courts are the same, right? Well, the Nets do now somehow have a significantly better away record than home record. Hmmm.
Washington
Washington proves the importance of a competent front office. They’ve got a number of good draft picks and drafted reasonably well, but terrible management (which handed out awful contracts to mediocre veterans, and then traded for more of the same) and terrible coaching (which failed to instil discipline in the young players) has left them terrible. At least the coach has been sacked, not before time.
More interesting to watch than other terrible teams, partly since they at least have a clue on offence and then play actively terrible defence to make up for it. And then there’s Javale McGee, always good for at least one blooper reel moment per game as well as highlight dunks and blocks.
Unanswered questions: With a coach that makes them focus, play defence and quit messing around all the time, and with their salary cap situation mostly cleared up, is the core of a good team hiding in there with Wall, Young, McGee, Booker, Crawford and Singleton?
Answered questions: Not going to improve of their own accord. They need a new broom to whip them into shape, if I may mix metaphors.
Charlotte
I don’t believe this is an actual professional basketball team. The above video encapsulates in one play how bad Charlotte is. As do stats like “4-28” and “2-16 on the road” and “regular 30 and 40 point losses”.
Michael Jordan couldn’t make this team competitive, and in fact he hasn’t (as owner).
They have like two players on the entire list who would get a game for 90% of other teams, and neither would start (Henderson and Walker). They are really, really, really bad. I assume this is a charity project for needy 3rd rate basketball players.
Unanswered questions: Does this team have a hiring process, or is it just the first guy to sign his name on the roster?
Answered questions: Will not have the worst record ever seen in NBA history by sheer number of games lost (due to the shortened season). Still on track to have the worst season by percentage of games lost.
Final thoughts which are not at all getting ahead of myself:
- LeBron James for MVP, Dwight Howard for Defensive Player of the Year, James Harden for 6th Man of the Year, Rose-Wade-James-Durant-Howard 1st team All-NBA, Kyrie Irving rookie of the year.
- Miami-Spurs for all the marbles, and Miami to take it in 5. Chris Bosh for Finals MVP, because why not?
- Jeremy Lin to be a starting All-Star in the East next year, to the outrage of serious basketball writers and the secret relief of Derrick Rose (who by all accounts hates playing in the All-Star game alongside “teammates” he spends the rest of the year plotting to destroy).
- The Lakers to fail to make any trade of consequence and to fall deeper into mediocrity in 2013. Lakers games to become solely about Kobe Bryant’s Attempt To Reach The Next Individual Milestone (more than they already are, I mean).
- The Howard sweepstakes will be won by Brooklyn.
- None of the trades that take place at the trade deadline will actually change who is and isn’t a contender this year.
