It’s likely that before the champagne could even dry into the carpet of the St. Louis Cardinals’ clubhouse Friday night, at least a few minds had turned to the elephant in the room. The right-handed hitting, Gold Glove, MVP-Award winning elephant named Albert Pujols.
In truth Pujols, arguably the best active hitter in the game, and potentially one of the greatest right-handed hitters of all-time, was that elephant for the better part of the Cardinals’ season. Only the ridiculous run from 10 1/2 game out of the Wild Card in late August to World Series champions in October managed to edge the story into the fringe. For the St. Louis faithful, and mostly likely, general manager John Mozeliak, it never strayed terribly far from consciousness.
Even as the final out of Game 7 settled harmlessly into the glove of Allen Craig and the dugout emptied in jubilation, it didn’t take long for the questions to come: What will Pujols do? Could he really leave St. Louis? If he did, where could he go?
Don’t Even Think About It
Fortunately (if you’re the Cardinals), the archaic set up of Major League Baseball’s revenue sharing system leaves a large proportion of the teams out of the running for Pujols. Go ahead and cross Pittsburgh, Arizona, Atlanta, Cleveland, Kansas City, Seattle, Oakland, Tampa Bay, Toronto, Cincinnati, Baltimore, Florida, Houston, San Diego, Washington and Colorado off the list. That’s almost half the league right there. These teams either don’t have the means period, or the means to pay that much to a single player. Go ahead and whack Milwaukee off the list as well. If they can’t afford Prince Fielder, they sure as heck can’t afford Pujols. His likely starting salary in 2012 ($25M-ish) would be more than a quarter of the payroll these teams laid out in 2011.
While we’re at it, let’s throw out Detroit and Minnesota as well. They both had payrolls north of $100M last year, but both already have a big bucket of money committed to first base in the persons of Miguel Cabrera and Justin Mourneau, respectively. While Pujols would make a spectacular addition to either team as a designated hitter, it’s just not feasible for either team.
There, we’ve officially eliminated more than half of teams in the majors. That was easy.
Normally, Maybe, But Right Now, No:
The Mets are broke, and spent most of 2011 bleeding cash and taking loans. (Nicely done, Bernie Madoff). If the Mets are going to fire major money around, it’s going to be to re-sign Jose Reyes, even though he can’t stay healthy.
The Dodgers explored their inner Donald Trump and filed for bankruptcy earlier this year. So, yeah, an extra $25M+ a year? Not really in the budget. (Note: Depending on how quickly Frank McCourt can sell the team, maybe this changes, but, unlikely in the interim)
The San Francisco Giants? They had a sizable payroll this year, but have acknowledged that they aren’t looking to significantly add to payroll for the foreseeable future. So, no. Plus, don’t be surprised if Buster Posey ends up at first in the very near future.
Already, that leaves us with only a handful of teams. Who else can we cross off the list?
Means, but Limited Desire:
The Yankees: Before every jag-off Yankees fan tries to make the case that Pujols is totally headed for the Bronx, let’s examine a few facts. First, Mark Teixeira is signed through the 2016 season at $22.5M/year. A-Rod is signed through 2017 for $20M+ each season as well. At best, that leaves Pujols in the position of DH-ing, a job that will likely fall to Rodriguez before too long. Besides, conventional wisdom is that you don’t pay $20M+ for a guy who isn’t going to play the field, no matter who he is. Oh, and throwing another $30M at CC Sabathia, and still having a mess of a starting rotation doesn’t help the cause here.
Boston: Adrian Gonzalez is signed through 2018, making more than $20M a year. They still have to make a decision on David Ortiz, pay arbitration for Jacoby Ellsbury (who’s going to get a HUGE raise), and are stuck with Kevin Youkilis through 2013. Given the latter’s health issues, he’s likely going to be the DH if Ortiz doesn’t resign. With a new GM, there’s no doubt that the Red Sox would love to make a splash, but Pujols isn’t moving back to third at this point in his career, and it’s doubtful anyone can sell him on signing on to strictly DH at this point.
Philadelphia: Shredded Achillies tendon and all, their cart is still hitched to Ryan Howard, and there’s just no way around that. With all that other cash hooked into the pitching staff on top of it, there’s just not enough dough to play with.
What does that leave us with? Five teams-the Cardinals, Cubs, White Sox, Rangers, and Angels.
The Contenders
The Cubs are a nice story, but they are a) the Cardinals rivals and b) an unmitigated disaster. Financially, they are still on the hook for Alphonso Soriano, Carlos Zambrano, and, likely, Aramis Ramiriez. I’ll pause while Cubs fans drop a brick on their foot. At some point, they have to spend something on pitching. They’d love to stick it to the Cardinals, but that would require Pujols to also want to stick it to the Cardinals. Pujols keeps saying that this is a business, but signing with the Cubs after 11 years in St. Louis would move way beyond that. Odds on signing Pujols: 500-1
Across town, the White Sox have a maniac of a GM, but they’re on the hook through 2013 for Paul Konerko, though his contract dips some in that last year. DH Adam Dunn and his sub-.200 average is stuck on the books through 2014. Oh, and they have to decide if they want to resign Mark Buerhle. Good luck, fellas. Odds: 300-1
In Texas, they have a DH playing first base (Michael Young), as well as an owner and a GM who really, really want to win a World Series after what’s happened to them the last two years. However, their payroll didn’t break $100M last year, and they need to resign CJ Wilson this winter, and Josh Hamilton the winter after that. Signing Pujols would conceivably push them into the $150M range within two years, something that doesn’t seem plausible, no matter how close they’ve come. Odds: 50-1
Did you know the Angels already have a $20M+/year guy? His name is Vernon Wells. Ouch. They are also paying Torii Hunter almost $20M for the next few years. On the bright side, they do have an opening at first, a great climate, a nice pitching staff, and an owner who likes to spend. Pujols would easily be able to transition to DH after a few years without batting an eye in Anaheim. Odds: 20-1
For St. Louis, it’s impossible to claim that their chances didn’t take a big hit when Tony LaRussa retired on Monday morning. LaRussa was the only manager Pujols played for at the Major League level. No matter where he signs now, he has to face that change. For the Cardinals, Pujols’ next contract will add at least $10-12M annually to their payroll. Money currently allocated to Chris Carpenter can reasonably be allocated to Jamie Garcia or another pitcher when Carpenter retires in the next couple of years. Coming off the buzz of a second world championship in 6 years, it behooves the Cardinals to do everything in their power to sign him. Pujols will likely have to face at least a little of the reality that he turns 32 this offseason, especially when it comes to the length of contract offered him. On top of that, Prince Fielder is out there at the same position, and almost definitely not resigning with the Brewers. He also happens to be a about four years younger, and may come as much as $5M/year cheaper.
In the end, however, St. Louis is home. If he sticks around, hits another 200+ home runs, maybe wins another title, he retires not just a baseball legend, but a St. Louis icon. Odds: 10-1
(Pic via)
