Predicting the Oscars: Best Picture

We are nearing the top of Hollywood’s Mount Kilimanjaro and just have a few…more…steps before reaching the summit.

Motion Picture of the Year

Who will scream “I’m the king of the world!” as he or she accepts the Oscar for the big Kahuna? Hopefully no one so we don’t have to choke a bish. The Academy decided to expand this category from five to ten nominees in 2009 so to allow for more money a broader selection of films to be nominated. And guess what? It worked!  Yay for Hollywood!

Here, ladies and gents, are your nominees.

Black Swan

People may die tonight.

Advantage: Two words: “Oscar Bait.”  Yes, this movie’s extensive marketing campaign, followed by its release schedule seem, to indicate the ultimate goal of this freaky flick was to win as many “awards season” awards as possible.  After all, the movie was in limited release as of December 4th, the deadline for nominations to Ernst & Young for the Golden Globes was December 8th, and the deadline for the Oscar nomination paperwork was December 27th.  Coincidence? We think not.

The movie is visually stunning and has all the best Oscar traits going for it: the psychological dysfunction that won A Beautiful Mind a golden man, just enough fantasy to give it the Lord of the Rings factor, and the inner frustration of American Beauty.  Plus, Mila Kunis and Natalie Portman make out. That’s hot.

Disadvantage:  Did watching Natalie’s veins pop out of her forehead and neck for two hours put some people off?  Do people like animated toys better?  Are a pair of cracking feet and peeling cuticles enough to give her the Best Actress Oscar? We’ll have to wait and see, little birds.

The Fighter

He took some wicked hard punches.

Advantage:  An incredibly talented cast, most of whom were nominated for their performances (except Marky Mark – nah nah nah nah nah nah naaaaaah!), drug addiction, fighting, fighting, and more fighting.  It gets plenty of points for intensity, and the performances have been widely lauded.

Disadvantage:  Wait, another Boston hard luck story – is the Academy growing weary of those?  Maybe it’s not as many as we think – after all there’s only: Good Will Hunting, Mystic River, Gone Baby Gone, The Departed, and Boondock Saints.  Interestingly enough, all of these movies contain at least one of the following:  Matt Damon, an Affleck, a Wahlberg, and/or a Leo. The Academy is probably looking for something more along the lines of a premise that hasn’t been done before.  Not that it’s a bad movie, but is it the best movie?

Inception

Is this real life?

Advantage:  I don’t what? For real, though. Or not for real.  Depending on what layer you’re in. So, wait. Huh?

Anyway, we can honestly say this is one of the most mind-bending dramas in the history of ever.  Enough reality to get you sucked in enough to get you to believe the story really could happen, combined with a possibly dead wife who manifests as a train in dreams, and enough fantasy to keep you from going insane.  Also, Joseph Gordon-Levitt who basically made up for being in 500 Days of Summer, and Cillian Murphy, just for being there.

Disadvantage:   Oh, and chances for a win? We’re still not sure what happened – STOP PRESSURING US!

The Kids Are All Right

Two girls, one donation cup.

Advantage:   The classic tale of girl meets girl. Girls falls for girl. Marriage and babies follow.  How you ask? Enter boy.  Annette Bening and Julianne Moore, married with children, and Mark Ruffalo as the sexiest sperm donor ever (DQ still objects).

Disadvantage:  Annette Bening and Julianne Moore, married with children, and Mark Ruffalo as the sexiest sperm donor ever (…still objecting!).  Yes, you read that right. Really though, it seems this movie hasn’t been taken seriously enough by, well, anyone – producers included.  It’s been reviewed as a good movie, but deserving of Oscar’s love?  Not so much.

The King’s Speech

Did I stutter?

Advantage:  Kings, costumes and a strong couple.  Everyone loves the Brits, right?  Also, just see our Best Actor and Best Supporting actor and Actress posts from earlier this week.  The performances were top-notch, and the story unique enough to earn a second (or third) glance from the Academy voters.

Disadvantage:  There’s been some discussion that King George VI had Nazi sympathizing tendencies, and a significant portion of Academy voters are Jewish, so will Tom Hooper’s Golden Globes winner fail to win itself the Golden Man?

127 Hours

What would you do?

Advantage:  The title is as simple as the story – one man exploring the stunning Utah expanse when he gets stuck between a rock and a hard place (sorry for that). Fortunately, the story was somehow whittled down to about two hours, leaving us missing out regarding the remaining 125 hours, but we can only assume there was much sleeping and drinking pee.

Disadvantage:  It’s an amazing story based on real life and Hollywood doesn’t appreciate that at all!  They get all whiny about not having enough writers and stuff.  Wouldn’t it be cool to have the host’s movie win, though. Kinda? No? Okay.

The Social Network

Smart fucker Zuckerberg changed the world.

Advantage:  What is this Facebook thing, anyway? HA HA! HAHAHAHAHHAHA! Oh, we kid. Who hasn’t wanted to know the story about the 18 year old wunderkind who created the most successful social networking system in the world?  Regardless of the accuracy of the story told, we know there’s some modicum of truth behind it, and the characterization of those involved combined with an appropriately paced plot make this movie, well, just damn good.  Also, there’s a fantastic love/hate relationship the audience develops with the “Winklevii”, who make basis of the story as much about the business of the site as the compromised friendships that made this story so fascinating. Plus, Hollywood loves Aaron Sorkin.

Disadvantage:  Too much hyperbole?  Does Mark Zuckerberg really seem like that evil of a guy?  Will the Academy consider Facebook too trendy to receive their greatest honor?  We’ll have to wait and see. The actors are mostly all upstarts and there are many, many, manty more experienced folks in the running.

Toy Story 3

We didn't cry. There was something in our eye.

Advantage:   DANG IT if Disney doesn’t always get it right!  The Toy Story series is basically like a money-printing machine for Disney and Pixar but there is more than just amazing animation. Look, this movie stars the following:  A rag-doll cowboy and cowgirl, a spaceman who can go into Spanish mode, a Mr. & Mrs. Potato head, triplet aliens, a frightened T-Rex and the best damn evil villain we’ve ever seen.   Seriously, did anyone suspect that guy?  Also, the plot is heart-warming, frightening, and has a satisfying ending if we’ve ever seen one. The reference to Thelma and Louise was brilliant.

Disadvantage:  Has a Disney animated film ever won a Best Picture?  Is this a courtesy nomination that wouldn’t have happened had there been the traditional 5 nominations in this category?  Have we asked enough questions during this posting?

Verdict! Drum roll, please…

Dancing Queen’s pick for winner:  Toy Story 3. I realize this would be a huge upset but I liked the movie and the story and that’s enough for me.

Missing Peace’s pick for winner:  The King’s Speech. Just because.

Ms. Anthropy’s pick for winner: The Social Network. Gotta keep the youngs interested in the show.

Go grab your champagne, slip into your pajama jeans (tops optional as usual), and get ready for the fun. Just a few hours until Hollywood unleashes this beast!

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