Today is Christmas wrapped in the Super Bowl surrounded by endless waves of Kentucky Derby roses for gambling professionals, casinos, Hoboken wise guys, and offshore sports books. This is the day when the non-gamblers gamble, the day when grandmas, toddlers, the comatose and Nepalese Sherpas all gather round the television and fill out an NCAA basketball tournament bracket without knowing the difference between Duke and Duquesne or a chance in hell of actually winning the office, school or neighborhood pool.
And the pros –also that skeezy guy from Tech Support who runs this thing every year–are lining up to take your bracket and your money. The only time you’ll hear from them again is through a weekly email between now and Easter showing you and your colleagues just badly your bracket is progressing.
But that’s all for other years. Yes friends, as Jim Nantz would say, this year, the odds are on your side. This year, you have the upper hand. Because this year, you are reading Crasstalk’s Guide to Bracket Glory. And you will finally learn the Secrets of the Sherpas, at least when it comes to picking Kentucky or Kansas. (Hint: Sherpas inexplicably love Calipari. Who knew?)
We’ll begin with the Unbreakable Laws of Bracketology. Do not violate them, it will only make you look silly. Sherpas will laugh at you in the breakroom. Well, they will if your office is at Everest Base Camp. Not many Sherpas in Midtown.
Here are ten simple rules to get you into April with a viable bracket:
- 1. Do not pick a 15 or 16 seed to win a game. No 16 seed has ever won, only four 15 seeds have ever won even one game in the tournament.
- 2. Move all four Number 1 seeds to the Sweet Sixteen. Every now and then a Number 1 will lose the first weekend, but it’s rare.
- 3. Favor teams with senior guards. Choose schools with starting juniors and seniors generally. Mature leadership wins championships. Even a team with a great one-and-done player needs seniors.
- 4. Pick against West Coast teams this year. This includes and San Diego State and Arizona. Pretenders.
- 5. In the first round pick at least one, but no more than two, number 12 seeds to knock off a number 5 seed. Just do it.
- 6. After the first round, avoid Kansas, Pitt, UConn and BYU. And I know Kansas has two titles. But look at their record the years they don’t win it all. Do not trust in Kansas.
- 7. Go chalk from the Sweet 16 in. Pick the higher seeds. You won’t be sorry. You also won’t look like an idiot for picking Old Dominion over Notre Dame and losing your pool by two points.
- 8. Definitely put one or two Number 1 seeds in your Final Four, but not all four number 1’s. That’s only happened once.
- 9. Pick Duke. They always win. I know, I know, we all hate them–and that school has issues. Real issues. But winning basketball games is not one of them. You’ll never go broke betting on Duke to win.
- 10. For your national champion, pick a school that has won it all prior to 2011. March Madness is like the NBA, not that many different champions. Since 1991, only four schools–Arkansas, Arizona, Syracuse, and Maryland–are one-time champions. All the rest–the Dukes, UNC’s, UConns, and Floridas–have won at least two.
- That’s the easy part. Now let’s take a deeper look. Here are the secrets. This is money in the bank:
- 1. First of all, avoid Louisville. I don’t mean in the tournament, they may win this thing. Just, ya know, when traveling or relocating, avoid Louisville.
- 2. Also to be avoided: The Northeastern Japanese schools. Their power forwards may be radioactive. Guarding them man-to-man will be tricky, but it can be done.
- Too soon?
- 3. Although it is popular, do not pick a winner in a toss-up game based on the school’s colors or who’s mascot could beat up the other. (Panthers eat Wildcats. Lions eat Cardinals. Cannibals eat Colonials, that sort of thing.) These are popular methods, but wrong.
- 4. What you want to do is pick the school a favorite ex-girlfriend attended, or pick against the school where that whore who dumped you in the Summer of 2005 went to grad school. Also, if a college accepted you, but you chose not to go there, pick them. They’re OK. If you applied and they denied you, screw ’em. Out in Round Two. Even if they are a Number 1 seed. You have standards, damn it, and your essays kicked ass. Must have been some bullshit affirmative action thing. And those C’s in science and math. Trippin’ high school teachers. But still–out in the second round.
- 5. Don’t ever pick a directional school (Southeast Missouri State, Middle Tennessee, Inside Out Western North Dakota. They will only break your heart. Like that whore from 2005.
- 6. Do not select a school with two names. No George Masons, James Madisons, John Harvards, Dan Dartmouths or Oral Roberts. And nay to Charlie Sheen A&M, no matter how much they’ve been winning.
- 7. Catholics over Protestants. They’ve been playing basketball longer and take it more seriously than anything other than the Eucharist itself or Friday night bingo. So yes to Notre Dame, St Johns, Xavier or Georgetown–no to SMU, TCU or Liberty. Not that any of them will be playing this year. But this is a good rule for future reference.
- 8. Ivy League Champion Princeton? Umm, no. See above rule on admissions clause. You most likely didn’t get in. And if you did–you are too damn smart to pick Princeton.
- Finally, the most important rule of all: Choosing pro or con on your beloved alma mater.
- 9. If your school is a 15 or 16 seed, I’m sorry, there is nothing I can do and you must kill them off in the first round. If they are a 13 or 14 seed, you have to go Dr Phil-style tough love and do the same. Out. Think of the laughing Sherpas. But…if your school is a 12 seed or higher, then quietly hum your fight song and take them to the Sweet Sixteen. Why not, you still owe them $80,000 in student loans, it can’t hurt. If your alma mater is a Top Four seed–unless it is also a Protestant school up against Catholics, from a state McCain won, is Princeton, directional, or that school that whore attended–then pick them to win the National Championship. Someone’s gonna win it. Let’s just hope it you and not Duke. Er, I mean, you and not them.
Top image Flickr.
