Despite the 27 (nope not possible) 15 hour time difference, two of your favorite Crasstalk NBA enthusiasts were able to get together over gchat (h/t to Bots for the idea) to talk about the upcoming NBA Playoffs. Here’s a transcript of the conversation I had with BaldwinP last weekend.
BaldwinP: OK, so: the West to start with?
clarity83: sure
BaldwinP: For the sake of the readers: let us just say that this preview is totally not going to be biased towards the Spurs and the Heat.
clarity83: Well, I’ll do what I can.
BaldwinP: First, we should address the gigantic elephant that just appeared in the room with the West playoffs- Kobe Bryant’s injury. Not that I believe the Lakers were going anywhere even if Kobe was fit and IF the Lakers make 8th, but still.
clarity83: So, Lakers keep the last spot or does it go to Utah?
BaldwinP: I think the Lakers hang on- the rest of the team should fire up for the last 2 games and Utah seem incapable of helping themselves. I also think that either the Lakers or Utah get swept 4-0 by either the Thunder or Spurs.
Both conferences this year are great argument these days for having a wild card playoff for 8th… wouldn’t it better to see Dallas with a fit Dirk or Washington with a fit Wall in 8th rather than the lame ducks that will make it? But it is what it is. What do you think?
clarity83: I have to agree that the Lakers won’t go anywhere in the first round. Too much drama all season long that affected their play. I think Thunder and Spurs stay 1 and 2. Thunder demolish the Lakers. What is this about a wild card playoff? I don’t like that for basketball.
BaldwinP: It’s a shame that the Thunder will finish top – we all wanted to see the Thunder against Harden’s Houston in the playoffs.
clarity83: Yeah, that would have been awesome.
BaldwinP: Bill Simmons among others has suggested a playoff for 8th spot among the next few teams so that there’s more reason for a team to fight for 7th and for teams just out of the playoffs to keep fighting to the end as well. And so a team which was injured early and then comes good, like Washington this year, can be in the playoffs instead of a lousy team like the Bucks.
clarity83: Yeah, I was surprised to see the Bucks where they are.
BaldwinP: Anyway, the West: yeah, Thunder to demolish the Lakers. Spurs to beat Houston 4-1. Houston takes more 3s than any team in the league, and at least one game they’ll go berserk from downtown. But ultimately the Spurs are too experienced and deep, even with Ginobili hurt and Jackson kicked off the team.
clarity83: That move totally shocked me, by the way.
BaldwinP: Me too. Couldn’t they cope with Captain Jack in the locker room for a couple more weeks? It’s playoff time!
clarity83: Ha! Though, now that I think about it, I was shocked when they re-signed him. Was that this year? Last year?
BaldwinP: Last year- they got him in a trade for Richard Jefferson’s awful contract.
clarity83: Oh, god. Yes, now I remember. How I want to forget all about Richard Jefferson.
BaldwinP: I bet Golden State wishes the same. At least this was Jack’s last year. Jefferson’s contract has another year to run. Denver is currently in 3rd… I think they’ll hang on and get a date with Golden State (segue!)
clarity83: That should be a fun series to watch.
BaldwinP: All offense!
clarity83: Like, 250 points per game.
BaldwinP: They’re such weirdly different teams for all they’re all O no D teams. Denver basically drives on every possession and Golden State either jack up 3s or have Lee score in the post.
If not for injuries I’d say Denver for sure. Denver has so much quality cover for Gallinari, and Lawson returned yesterday, so I’m still saying Denver. Home court advantage at altitude… I think they have the equal best home record, with Miami, and just hard to go past that.
clarity83: Yeah, I always forget about the altitude in Denver. They actually have a better home record that MIA by one game. I guess I’ll have to go with Denver, too. Clippers/Memphis: When I looked at the standings, I didn’t realize how high up the Grizz were. Then I remembered they were basically unstoppable at the beginning of the season
BaldwinP: Once they got rid of Rudy Gay and the team got over moping about it, they’ve been really fantastic again. Jerryd Bayless must be in the running for the most weirdly relevant player on a contender. (ok, there’s also Reggie Evans at the Nets.) But the way the Grizz got better by losing a “star” like Gay says a lot about the real value of inefficient scorers. A lot of front offices will have taken notice.
As for who’s going to win… well, Clippers/Memphis went 7 last year and the Clips won. And that was with home court for Memphis, which they may or may not have this time. But that’s last year. I think both teams are better this year… very close call.
What do you think?
clarity83: I think I have to go with the Clippers. (Jesus, I’m realizing now just how much I have not paid attention to basketball this year.) But, I still take the Clippers.
BaldwinP: I think I’ll take the Grizz, in 7, with Vinny Del Nergo fired and replaced by a Van Gundy. Their defense is just so good.
clarity83: Oh, VDN. Way to fail upward.
BaldwinP: Watching the Clippers is just like… SO much talent, but so disorganized. It’s fashionable to rip on VDN… but there’s good reason. CP3 can run the offence but defensively they’re so random.
clarity83: Honestly, his Bulls job was such a fluke. I was really surprised when he got ANOTHER head coaching job. I wish someone would have just hired him as an assistant or something so he could learn some things.
BaldwinP: He’ll do OK when the Clips fire him. A team like the Bucks or the Pistons will hire him on his win percentage.
Anyway… that gives us Thunder-Clips/Grizz and Spurs-Denver. How do you think the West shakes out then?
clarity83: I think the Thunder are gonna win that series. And I have no idea what is happening with my Spurs. Too many injuries and losing to teams we should beat late in the season. I’d go with Denver to win that series in like 6 or 7. Thunder to win the West again, I think.
BaldwinP: I can agree with all that. The Thunder are so much better defensively this year than last year (so are the Spurs, actually). That has kind of got lost in all the talk about what they’ve lost offensively with Harden. When push comes to shove I can’t see them losing a 7 game series to anyone buy Miami, although I think both the Grizz and Denver can make it close.
Although I think you’re being pessimistic about the Spurs. I don’t think they care too much down this part of the season, but they’ll be “alright on the night” as they say. Duncan has been awesome this season.
clarity83: Just Duncan being Duncan. I feel like every time he has a good year we just call it “vintage Duncan”
BaldwinP: True. He should get some MVP votes (not first place votes, but down the ballot). Hard to split who has been the Spurs’ best player, him or Parker.
A two-headed monster called “Punkan” maybe. Punkin’ opponents every night. Sorry, that was awful. We should edit it out (not happening Baldwin!).
It wouldn’t surprise me if we end up with Thunder-Spurs again, but it would surprise me if the Spurs won this time. Just because I don’t see what’s changed since last year to put the Spurs ahead.
clarity83: Not much has changed. Except we don’t have (Stephen) Jackson any more. I feel like he was a bit of a spark. Though, his numbers were down this season.
BaldwinP: And they don’t have James Harden. Which I guess is the wildcard- how the Thunder will play in playoffs basketball with Martin (who has bugger all playoff experience) instead of Harden.
clarity83: I would love to see a Thunder-Spurs rematch.
BaldwinP: We could get it. Denver won’t have home court advantage over the Spurs and their defense is really bad. Ginobili should be OK by the 2nd round.
clarity83: Yeah. So, East?
I got this ETA From Baldwin via email on Tuesday morning.
Addendum to our NBA piece: Thanks to Houston losing to PHOENIX, it turns out if the Rockets lose to the Lakers on April 17 the Rockets will end up in 8th against the 1st seeded Thunder. This is too delicious to not happen. I now have to cheer the Lakers. Thanks so much to the Spurs, Rockets and Jazz whose terrible losses led to this scenario becoming possible.
Tomorrrow: Look for our thoughts on who wins the East, who takes it all and who wins all the awards.
Image: Flickr
