Welcome to the real football season. The one in which a clash of bodies results in a roar of approval rather than a whistle and a lot of theatrical rolling around. The one in which shoulder pads are reserved for the corporate boxes.
Welcome back to the Australian Football League, and the first 18 team season thanks to new expansion team the GWS Giants and their virulent orange uniform. By the time you read this, the GWS Giants have already played their first game- a derby against the Sydney Swans- but for the other 16 teams the fun and mayhem begins this weekend.
I direct our American readers to this article about Australian football 101, and to my own novice guide of last year, to learn more about the greatest game in the world.
With this handy season preview, you will be able to impress random Australians with your deep knowledge of what’s going on in the world of Australian football.
Let’s take it from the top.
There have been no rule changes in the off-season (for the first time in a while), so no effect there. I’ll go through each team in the order they finished last season and say why they’ll be better, why they’ll be worse, and where (in my expert opinion) they’ll finish this year.
Geelong – 1st
3 flags from 4 Grand Final appearances in 5 years. ‘Nuff said. The veteran side to beat, with a loaded midfield and defence. Won last year despite being without “best player in the league” Gary Ablett Jr. This video says it all about Geelong in one incredibly skillful passage of play:
Why they’ll be better: Most of last year’s retirees were already out of the team or on the fringes by the Grand Final anyway. Several promising rookies from last year should take a step up this year, and most of the midfield stars still have time on their side.
Why they’ll be worse: The retirement of captain Cameron Ling, the best defensive midfielder in the game, leaves a hole with no obvious replacement. Full back Matthew Scarlett and other important pieces are on the wrong side of 30 and slowing down. There’s a difference between “promising rookies” and the top draft picks other top clubs have.
Prediction: First. They survived the loss of Ablett and actually improved, so I can’t really bet against them until they lose about half the team.
Collingwood – 2nd
The 2010 champions and 2011 beaten finalists return, strong in all areas of the ground, but with a rookie coach replacing the retiring legend Mick Malthouse.
Why they’ll be better: Younger than Geelong, much of the Collingwood midfield is still improving and only now coming to its peak, plus they’ll be all the hungrier for losing at the final hurdle last year.
Why they’ll be worse: When the Malthouse-to-Buckley coaching succession plan was put in place, Collingwood had been disappointing. Instead, Malthouse has been forcibly retired on the back of 1st and 2nd place finishes, and his replacement was famously arrogant in his playing days and has no senior coaching experience. Could get ugly. A couple of their biggest stars are in the last year of contracts, too, with rumblings about their depatures for big money at the end of the year.
Prediction: 2nd. The team is too good to slip too far, and we saw last year that Geelong didn’t miss a beat after a coaching change. Buckley has had years as an assistant here to learn how to run this team (if it even needs direction to run; it often seems to play like clockwork).
Hawthorn – 3rd
The 2008 premiers are the favourites to win this year, behind the best forward in the game, the only man in the past 10 years to kick over 100 goals in a season, Lance “Buddy” Franklin.
Why they’ll be better: They were pretty close last season despite some injury problems. They have to have a better run with injuries this time… right? Yet another solid roleplayer in Jack Gunston added via traded to go with the collection of solid players Hawthorn has added via trade in the past 3 off-seasons.
Why they’ll be worse: They weren’t close to winning in 2009 and 2010, after what was widely regarded as a very lucky premiership in 2008. There’s no really obvious reasons why they’re better now, especially as ruckman Max Bailey is injured again already and #2 forward Jarryd Roughhead still hasn’t made a full recovery from the injury which ended his 2011 campaign.
Prediction: 3rd. A repeat of 2012 looms until they manage to draft or trade for a really big talent to put them over the top. The holes left after club legend Shane Crawford and key defender Trent Croad retired in the wake of the 2008 premiership have never been filled.
West Coast Eagles – 4th
Nearly every year a team that missed the finals finishes top 4, while a team that finished top 4 misses the finals. Few rise from the bottom 4 to the top 4 in one year, but that was West Coast’s 2011.
Why they’ll be better: A team packed with players taken high in the draft during West Coast’s extended stay at the bottom, now reaching their 2nd, 3rd, 4th or 5th year in the league. Made the pre-season Grand Final.
Why they’ll be worse: A resurgence from the remaining veterans of the Eagles’ mid-2000s glory days was the real key last year (Kerr, Glass, Embley, Cox). That might have been the last year of top tier quality any of them had left in the tank. Pre-season Grand Finals have a track record of being won by 2nd rate teams, even teams who finish last in the regular season…
Prediction: 9th. Going to make the big call that 2011 was an aberration and the Eagles are going to crash land.
Carlton – 5th
Three consecutive number 1 picks (all of whom have become top players), several other high draft picks and trading for the great Chris Judd (who just won yet another Brownlow Medal as the game’s best and fairest player) was meant to have had them win a premiership by now. They still haven’t cracked the top 4. The coach has almost certainly been told “top 4 or be sacked”.
Why they’ll be better: Improving each year, if too slowly considering the talent available. Plenty of talented youngsters who should not have peaked yet.
Why they’ll be worse: Big injury problems early. Still hugely reliant on Judd and his oft-injured shoulders. Still got the same coach with the same lack of plans. Still have failed to trade surplus of midfield or forward assets to fill giant defensive hole. Couldn’t win a match in the pre-season despite appearing to try.
Prediction: 5th. Too much talent and on-field leadership to fail, but need to shake things up to take the next step. Which they should have realised years ago after their coach used all their draft picks and trade assets on midfielders without thought to any other position, but anyway.
St Kilda – 6th
Beaten Grand Finalists in 2009 and 2010 scraped into the finals in 2011 thanks to the sheer willpower of their veterans down the stretch. The team they had in the finals last year didn’t have a single player drafted after 2007. Everyone said they should blow it up, get what they can, and rebuild. Instead, the team who will have more players become free agents at the end of 2012 than any other will give it one last shot with the oldest squad in the league.
Why they’ll be better: Lenny Hayes, the best inside midfielder the Saints have, missed most of last year with a knee injury. He’s back. Star forward and captain Nick Riewoldt had a host of injury niggles and confidence problems. He should be back. A new coach and a few new recruits might add some energy to the old legs.
Why they’ll be worse: Hayes is 34 and coming off a knee reconstruction. Riewoldt’s body had quit on him after years of doing things like this:
The team is full of guys carrying Father Time on their back. A combination of low picks and lousy drafting means the young energy they are counting on is more of a Hail Mary than a guarantee. And as for the new coach, this particular group of veterans have somewhat of a history of not playing nice with new coaches….
Prediction: 10th. Should have blown it up when they had the chance.
Sydney – 7th
The ultra-consistent, ultra-defensive Sydney transitioned from legendary coach Paul Roos to his long time understudy John Longmire so smoothly that people tended to forget anything had changed. Same gameplan, same guys, same tenacity. Too good to fall to the bottom and get good draft picks. Not good enough to threaten. A familiar trap to anyone who follows draft-based leagues.
Why they’ll be better: The Swans got past the retirements of veterans Leo Barry, Craig Bolton and Brett Kirk without fuss, with young replacements stepping up in Sydney’s disciplined defensive system. Forward Sam Reid, after a promising 2011, could break out in 2012.
Why they’ll be worse: The Swans have been Adam Goodes’ team for the better part of 15 years, and he’s won more games for them than I care to count. Goodes is coming to the end of his decorated career, and his midfield time was already being carefully managed in 2011. Goodes is irreplaceable, and despite savvy drafting the Swans haven’t had the picks to find superstars. An early injury to Ryan O’Keefe, the Swans’ 2nd best player, also hurts.
Prediction: 6th. I think Goodes has this one last carefully managed season in him, and the Swans have been like the NBA’s Spurs in their ability to find talent from late draft picks and trades for fringe players from other clubs. They won’t fall off yet.
Essendon – 8th
Overachieved in 2009 to reach 8th and a finals berth, crashed back to Earth in 2010 and changed coaches. Overachieved in 2011 to finish 8th…
Why they’ll be better: New coach James Hird greatly improved their defence last year, with the aid of Rising Star-winning rookie Dyson Heppell, albeit at the expense of some of the attacking flow beloved of previous coach Matthew Knights. The team has several talented youngsters besides Heppell from whom Hird can find improvement. Much is expected from big key position player Michael Hurley.
Why they’ll be worse: Got 8th last year more by default and a favourable draw than impressive play. Won or lost based on the performance of captain Jobe Watson, and other teams have taken note that shutting down Watson kills Essendon’s ability to win the contested ball. Defensive stocks so thin that 39 year old Dustin Fletcher is still a key part of their defence, and key forward stocks so thin that Hurley is being moved out of that thin defense to be a full-time forward.
Prediction: 11th. Treading water, and even with improvements from the likes of Heppell, Hurley and Melksham they are too reliant in too many places on old guys like Fletcher and McVeigh or hacks like Dempsey and Slattery who they should have been able to retire by now. Too many of the young stars they drafted the last time at the bottom have been destroyed by injury or failed to live up to expectations. They’re going to need to go back down and try again while they still have the guys like Heppell and Hurley who have worked out.
North Melbourne – 9th
A young team with high hopes after finishing 9th in 2010, but a bad run of injuries, a touch schedule and a few close games turning on questionable calls saw them narrowly miss the finals again. Finals or bust for them this year.
Why they’ll be better: Last year they were behind the 8 ball to start with due to a brutal first month of travel and injuries (punctuated by a single home game against defending champions Collingwood), but came home strongly down the stretch and almost grabbed a finals spot as a number of young players seemed to find a new level. Another year of experience into the youngsters, an almost injury-free squad and a much kinder schedule this year should see significant improvement. The round 1 team has an air of run and class to it that injuries prevented North from having last year.
Why they’ll be worse: Retiring small defender Brady Rawlings has no obvious replacement. Superstar Brent Harvey is aging, and younger star Daniel Wells has been limited in pre-season training due to blood-thinning medication after a blood clot scare late last year. Brad Scott’s game plan and team selections have been oft-criticised and it’s still hard to predict a settled line-up wekk to week.
Prediction: 4th. Big call that North will be this year’s top 4 team to come from outside last year’s top 8. Everything seems to be in place to waiting to click together for the most successful club of the 90s after a decade of inconsistency.
Western Bulldogs – 10th
One of two big fallers last year will continue with their rebuild in 2012, although the loss of youngest midfield star Callan Ward to the new GWS Giants will hurt.
Why they’ll be better: The remaining veterans from the title challenges of the late 2000s are the ones with something left to give. New coach’s gameplan appears to be playing to their defensive strengths rather than the quick running game for which they no longer have the personnel. Lucked out last year with not one but two father-son exceptions who were probably top-10 quality picks and will hopefully produce big in their 2nd year in the league. Presumably will not have its 3 best defenders all missing at the same time this year.
Why they’ll be worse: The remaining veterans have something left to give but age and injuries are wearying them. Ward is gone. The rest of their drafting from pre-2010, like St Kilda’s, is looking increasingly underwhelming.
Prediction: 8th. Still enough talent to get in, provided they aren’t as unlucky with injuries as last year. Just not enough to be contenders.
Fremantle – 11th
After a top 4 finish in 2010, only their 2nd finals appearance in history, Freo crashed badly in 2011 while local rivals West Coast made the opposite journey.
Why they’ll be better: Sacked terrible coach Mark Harvey and brought in proven success Ross Lyon from St Kilda (the reader may be getting the impression that a lot of coaches changed jobs in 2011, and the reader would be right… a long period of relative stability ended in a total bloodbath, coaching-wise). Probably can’t have as bad a run with injuries as last year. No significant losses or players getting over the hill.
Why they’ll be worse: Lyon had a tough settling-in period at the Saints before winning over the team to his uncompromising style, and Fremantle have no winning culture to start with. Highly dependent on superstar forward Pavlich and 211cm ruckman Sandilands, both of whom had injury problems last year which may recur.
Prediction: 7th. Better than last year’s crash suggested, and should recover some of that lost ground, provided Pavlich and big 211 hold up.
Richmond – 12th
Years at the bottom gave them years of wasted top draft picks under Terry Wallace. The Damian Hardwick regime has seen mild improvements, and despite grumbles about lack of progress Hardwick just received a contract extension.
Why they’ll improve: Gun youngsters like Dustin Martin, Jack Riewoldt and Trent Cotchin going from strength to strength.
Why they won’t: Riewoldt may have already hit his ceiling in 2010, with a slightly down year last year. A lack of supporting cast or any veteran experience to go with the core of high-draft-pick players. Unclear whether Hardwick is any good or just a slightly better developer of talent than Wallace was.
Prediction: 12th. May slightly improve, but the teams falling from above will still be better and at least one team will pass them from behind in what is likely to be a logjam between 6th and 12th or so.
Melbourne – 13th
Foolish pundits predicted last year to be the year of Melbourne’s emergence, but it ended with a sacked coach and with prized #1 draft pick Tom Scully refusing to sign a new contract after just two years with the club and instead taking a big money offer from GWS. Amazing how Melbourne fans stopped rating Scully as the best thing since sliced bread the moment he left the club….
Why they’ll be better: The inner turmoil is resolved. Another year into the young players. The emotion of doing it for Jim Stynes, the club legend who recently passed away from cancer but not before pulling off a massive fundraising job to clear the club’s debt.
Why they’ll be worse: So many busted high draft picks. The best one of all of them has left. The other former #1 pick may not even be picked in the team for round 1 (update: he has, but the fact that it was even in question speaks volumes). Best remaining player Colin Sylvia will miss the first month of the season at least, and one of the few other reasons for excitement, Liam Jurrah, was arrested in the off-season for his involvement in a machete attack and will not be seen on the football field any time soon.
Prediction: 16th Back to the bottom.
Adelaide – 14th
Paid the price for trying to hold onto its veterans one year too long and had an inexplicably awful first 8 weeks of the season. Finished quite decently after sacking the coach and giving game time to the youngsters. Further setback when young key position players Jack Gunston and Phil Davis left in the off season (on the back of key defender Nathan Bock leaving the year before).
Why they’ll be better: If they played the way they did down the stretch last season with the youngsters, they would have finished higher than 14th last year. Good pre-season form.
Why they won’t: But two of the more important youngsters to last year’s late effort left at the end of the year and it’s hard to see where a significant improvement is meant to come from in the short term.
Prediction: 13th
Brisbane – 15th
The poster child for “how not to strengthen your squad”. Overrating the finals appearance in 2009 led to coach Voss trying to give one last title shot to three-time champions Simon Black, Jonathan Brown, Luke Power and Daniel Bradshaw. Terrible man management and terrible trades earned Voss the nickname “Crazy Vossy” and caused Brisbane to hemmorhage and end up near the bottom for the last two years with a steady stream of players either demanding trades or walking at the end of contract. Only Voss’ stature at the club has saved his job so far.
Why they’ll be better: Not much room to go down. Rockliff and Redden have emerged over the past 2 years as guys who will lead the midfield for at least the next 5 years.
Why they’ll be worse: Brown, still their most important player, has been injured in the pre-season. Rockliff and Redden have probably hit their ceilings. Their last few top draft picks have not yet shown signs of superstardom (or even regular stardom). The loss of Mitch Clark and Luke Power in the off-season completes the exodus of every experienced and talented player who was at Brisbane before 2009 except for Brown and Black.
Prediction: 17th. And only because GWS are new will they stay off the bottom. There’s a long time in the darkness coming for Brisbane.
Port Adelaide – 16th
One of the best teams in the 2000s is currently undergoing its “collect top draft picks and rebuild” phase, hinderered somewhat by financial difficulties.
Why they’ll be better: Forward John Butcher played 4 games at the end of last year and kicked big bags of goals in all of them. Potentially the biggest next big thing in the league. Has got past the pains of transitioning out the veterans. Has talent in every part of the ground.
Why they’ll be worst: Hard to see how they could be worse, really, unless all their best young players break legs or something.
Prediction: 15th but look out 2013. Still a few too many gaps to win a lot of games this year.
Gold Coast – 17th
Last year’s new franchise arrived with effectively the cream of two year’s draft crops and a hatful of free agents including unofficial best player in the league Gary Ablett Jr. One reason Ablett moved, besides the money, was to be the captain, something he was never going to be at Geelong despite his status there. Despite the many naysayers who figured that Geelong must be right about their superstar’s leadership abilities, Ablett proved an excellent on-field leader to his young teammates in 2011.
Why they will be better: With as many highly rated youngsters as Gold Coast have, some of them have to go big.
Why they will be worse: Not possible.
Prediction: 14th and to be honest I suspect I’m underrating them. Still, with the logjam of falling veteran teams and the conventional wisdom that young stars don’t really go big until their 3rd year, I’ll wait for 2013 to predict Gold Coast for top 8.
GWS – New franchise
Greater Western Sydney and their ugly orange uniforms and their unimaginative “Giants” nickname are the AFL’s attempt to force Australian football into the rugby stronghold of Sydney. By having a second team and a local rivalry in Sydney, and nearly doubling the number of games played there, the AFL hope to lure more Sydneysiders to football. Few are optimistic (especially since they made it “Greater” Western Sydney, and thus the most unwieldy franchise name in history, just so they can claim it is also the team representing towns to the west of Sydney as far away as Canberra… good luck with that sales job).
Prediction: 18th. A huge draft pick crop like Gold Coast had last year, but GWS did not splurge as much on free agents- saving some space to go for this year’s crop instead, when big stars with championships to their name will be out of contract (names like Travis Cloke and Scott Pendlebury have been thrown around like water). As such, they are likely to be grossly uncompetitive… this year, anyway.
(Header photo via tdm911 @ flickr) (Lance Franklin photo via Wikimedia Commons) (Jonathan Brown photo via Wikipedia)
