Season Series: Dallas won both regular season games, but neither team has faced each other since December 20, and the Mavericks no longer have Caron Butler due to injury.
Regular Season Ranks: Dallas 8th in Offensive Efficiency, 8th Defensive Efficiency. Miami 3rd in Offensive Efficiency, 5th in Defensive Efficiency
What to Look for with Dallas: Dirk Nowitzki, one of the most underappreciated athletes in all of sports is reminding people just how special of a player he is. 28 points per game on 51% shooting from the field, 51% from the 3-point line, and 92% from the free-throw line because a German wouldn’t approve of inefficiency.
But the Mavericks aren’t just a one-man show. Jason Terry and the reanimated corpses of Jason Kidd and Peja Stojakovic have been lights-out from the 3-point line and that trend is going to have to continue, albeit against a defense that is much better at closing out shooters than LA or OKC. Dirk is going to be able to get his shot off against anyone Miami can throw at him, but the Heat’s aggressive and quick defenders could make life very difficult for Dirk as a passer.
Against the Lakers and Mavericks he consistently made smart decisions with the ball, the LA series was basically one extended back- door cut. But they haven’t faced a defense this strong in months, nor have they encountered wing defenders as aggressive as LeBron James and Dwyane Wade.
Another key factor for Dallas is to get big minutes out of Puerto Rico’s greatest export, J.J. Barea. He’s wreaked havoc, most likely because opposing teams aren’t sure why this tiny man is running around like a headless chicken. But there’s a method to his herky-jerky play, as the Dirk/Barea pick and roll is one of the most potent plays Dallas runs.
Defensively, the Mavericks are like a lesser version of the Bulls defense that gave Miami a lot of issues. An extremely strong interior defense led by Tyson Chandler and reserve Brendan Haywood, the Mavs have tremendous size up front.
Shawn Marion has kind of wandered around the league for a few years after being traded by Phoenix, but he’s back in his niche role as the starting SF, doing all the dirty work defensively and for the next few weeks guarding LeBron James. He’ll likely follow Luol Deng’s lead and consistently force LeBron to go left and take jumpers by trying to limit as much space between the two as possible. Whether he can do it without fouling remains to be seen. The Mavericks play a lot of zone defense, something Miami hasn’t seen in a while. Theoretically it could cause major problems for a team that relies on stars without great outside shooting ability.
What to Look for with Miami: LeBron James is obviously the fulcrum of the offense and defense. It’s quite simple, if James can get going early, drawing fouls, setting up others and hitting the jumper consistently there’s little chance for Dallas to win more than a game. However, James is happy to oblige opposing defenses by taking ill-advised shots as the shot clock winds down. The Heat need to continue to run their motion offense and avoid reverting to their old isolation ball tactics.
Miami fans should also be a bit concerned about Dwyane Wade. While he hit some big shots to pull off the victory against Chicago last week, he did not have an effective series and at times passed up wide open shots or committed dumb turnovers. Luckily for Wade, he won’t be covered by anyone nearly as physical and quick as Ronnie Brewer. Jason Kidd figures to cover Wade most of the time, and while Kidd is a smart player who moves his feet extremely well there’s just no contest athletically.
Just like against the Bulls, Chris Bosh will remain the safety valve on all of Miami’s sets. The Heat rarely called out his number, but Bosh often was the one taking big shots because of the constant attention being paid to James and Wade. If he can keep up the strong play it will force Chandler to move away from the paint, limiting a mediocre defensive rebounding group.
But while all the ink is spilled over the 3 stars, it’s two role players that could put this series completely in Miami’s favor. Udonis
Haslem and Mike Miller are back and finally healthy, which gives the Heat the lineup they were dreaming about back in July. Wade/Miller/James/Haslem/Bosh. Without the need for a true point guard and the insertion of Haslem and Miller, the Heat can really spread the floor against Dallas and attack the paint. This was the crunch time lineup against Chicago and it worked beautifully. Haslem is a strong defender and did successfully hamper Dirk in the 2006 Finals, but this is a different, more patient Dirk and Haslem isn’t fully 100%.
Other Things to Interest You if the Games Kind of Suck: The Finals are broadcast on ABC, which sadly means we are once again subjected to the horrors of the Mike Breen-Jeff Van Gundy-Mark Jackson broadcast booth. On their own, all three guys are perfectly normal. But together they are a hydra of shitty announcing, cliche analysis, long incoherent tangents and Mark Jackson.
Really, there’s not enough mean things to say about the guy. If your boyfriend/girlfriend/cat is forcing you watch a game you don’t care for, enjoy the amazing and seamless ABC/ESPN/Disney cross-promotion and brand synergy! Sit back and wonder what kind of breathing exercises the Miami PA announcer does because that man can stretch out a syllable. Or, marvel at DeShawn Stevenson’s Abraham Lincoln tattoo.
Prediction: Dallas has been scoring at a prolific rate, and while the Thunder had a very strong defense they did not have the wing depth of Miami. Lebron and Wade will wreak havoc in the passing lanes, and Dallas does not have the talent to match up against those two.
For Dallas to pull off the upset Dirk will once again need to be spectacular, but also incredibly patient in getting to his spots, drawing fouls and getting his shooters good looks. For Miami, their blueprint has been to run the James/Wade pick and roll, trap hard on defense and get back quickly, and if a breakdown occurs just let one of their 3 stars take a really tough shot that invariably goes in. Miami in 6.
Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference. Photo Credits (1) (2) (3) (4)
