Your Swing Through the Swing States Post

If you have the misfortune of living in a swing state your life has been turned into a living hell for the past few months by ceaseless political advertising. If you have the misfortune of not living in a swing state your life has been turned into a living hell for the past few months by endless commentary about the importance of swing states. Here is an insider’s view of three of those hot beds of divisiveness. 

Ohio-KotBR

To be an Ohioan during the 2012 election is akin to living Bill Murray’s Groundhog Day role, but somehow much, much worse. It hasn’t been safe to watch non-DVR’d television since early September. Even the NFL, normally a place where I expect to be sold Real American things, like cars and beer, has become a minefield of ‘Real American’ political ads. The mailbox isn’t even safe these days, as my previous status as an Independent voter has garnered the attention of Americans for Tax Reform and Crossroads GPS, both of whom send ridiculous mailers made of heavy card stock, all depicting the President of the United States as some kind of monster.

Hilariously, all Karl Rove’s money and all the Koch brother’s lies can’t seem to overcome the fact that people in Ohio remember quite clearly the auto bailout that saved not a few jobs here in the Rust Belt. Nor do folks seem inclined to forget that John Kasich and the Republican-led legislature attempted a very Wisconsin-like fist fuck of organized labor last year. As of this writing, Nate Silver’s 538 blog still has the President as a more than 75% favorite to win the state. (For fun, Sherrod Brown, also a giant Rove/Koch target, is said to have a more than 95% chance of winning per Silver’s predictions)

On the ground, it is difficult to offer more than an anecdotal account of the mood and make a prediction based upon those observations. Ohio is a decidedly schizophrenic state. Only a handful of Ohio’s counties actually vote Democratic (hence the Republican imbalance in the legislature), but they happen to be the state’s most populous counties, one of which I call home. The state seems to find itself in a constant tug-of-war between the urban and rural populations.

Voting early one week prior to election day, the turnout was impressive-lines some 30 people deep to utilize one of I’d guess roughly 75 booths set up in a large open space for the purpose. Most heartening about the demographics of the turnout I witnessed in that 20 minutes or so was the large number of minority voters-young and old-turning out in what my dreadfully liberal heart assumed to be a giant middle finger to GOP Secretary of State Jon Husted’s attempts to limit early voting here.

Ultimately, it is these moments that give me hope that our attempt at democracy has not yet completely fallen prey to the new Gilded Age. I do believe the state will go once again for Barack Obama, by probably at least 3 points, though the optimism behind those votes, like those in many of the states in the union, will be much more muted than in 2008.

Florida-cletar 

Like Ohio, Florida is schizophrenic state. This is really true of all the swing states. If a state is pretty homogenous–I’m looking at you, Utah–it’s probably locked in. What makes a state swing-y is having sizable pockets of variability.  Florida is at least three or four states: the Panhandle, the I-4 Corridor, South Florida, and maybe Jacksonville. West of the Big Bend, stretching into the Panhandle, Florida is basically Alabama, once populated by Blue Dog Democrats but now pretty solidly Tea Baggy, except for Democratic pockets around Tallahassee. One of the last of the conservative Democrats who once dominated this region, Democratic congressman Allen Boyd, was ousted by Tea Bag jackass Steve Southerland in 2010. Southerland is best remembered for grumbling that a congressman’s $174,000 salary is “not so much.” Southerland is being challenged by Democrat Al Lawson.

Things to look for in Florida:

If turnout in Broward is 75% or so, Obama is having a good night. Romney has to get in the low 50s in the I-4 corridor to offset Obama advantages elsewhere.  If Romney is below 53% in this area, things are not going well for him. Romney only wins if Democratic turnout in Broward county is down, and Republican turnout in areas around Orlando is up. Some of the congressional races may be bellwethers of turnout. The media may call some down-ticket races well before they call Florida for Obama or Romney. If Democrat Alan Grayson beats Republican Todd Long in Florida’s 9th District in Orlando, that’s not good for Romney. If Tea Bag darling Southerland loses to notorious black man Al Lawson  in the 2nd Congressional District in the Panhandle, that’s a really bad sign for Romney. If African-American turnout is more than compensating for Tea Bag turnout, that is a disaster for Republicans. If Romney can’t rally enough of the manatee-skin clad savages prowling the swamps and pine-barrens from Chiefland to Panama City, he loses to the UCF students who vote before they start their shifts waiting tables at the garish Disney resorts, and the oldsters in Broward who manage to not screw up their ballots.

The state elected Rick Scott as governor, so anything can happen. Scott’s cuts to early voting may be causing something of a vote debacle in Florida, so who knows. Of all the swing states, Nate Silver at 538 puts this one at closest to 50-50. Currently, Silver gives Romney a 54% chance of winning here. If Florida stays too close to call on election night, or gets called for Obama relatively early, it’s probably over for Romney.

New Hampshire-SidandFinancy

Tim Russert famously said (and wrote on his whiteboard) of the 2000 election, “Florida!  Florida!  Florida!”  But Florida is not the only swing state this year to have demonstrated its disdain for basic math.

Tiny New Hampshire, “one of only four pre-Civil War states that never deprived blacks of the right to vote” (didn’t have them, doesn’t still), has its own curious history.

The state, famous for its “first-in-the-nation” primary, was host to a 1974 contest in which crusty John Durkin took on rusty Louis Wyman to replace Norris Cotton in the closest U.S. Senate race in history.  Wyman won the initial tally by 355 votes, but Durkin won a recount by 10 (!) votes.  Wyman demanded his own recount and won by 2 (!!) votes.  The whole thing got thrown to the Senate itself, which, like the House, is the final arbiter of the qualifications of its own members – fun idea that, Founding Fathers – which held hearings but ultimately punted.

Meanwhile, Cotton, a Republican, resigned three days early, enabling New Hampshire’s Republican governor to appoint Republican Wyman to the seat before the result had even been determined, the bastard.

The odd thing about the Granite State, though, is that it is not a swing state because it is always closely divided between the parties.  Rather, the state – whose populace is characterized by an odd combination of leave-me-alone libertarianism and help-thy-neighbor kindliness (as well as more than its share of dirtbag Led Zeppelin aficionados) – both loves to deliver surprising results at the last minute and also gives its citizens the tools to do so.

In a decisive special election, Durkin ultimately won by 27,000 votes, demonstrative of New Hampshire’s fickleness.

In primaries, a voter can walk into the polls a registered Republican, change her registration to Democratic (whether out of sincere interest in that contest or a desire to throw a wrench in the works of the other party), submit a Democratic ballot, and change her registration back to Republican on the way out, thank you very much.

After losing Iowa to Walter Mondale in 1984, with only 16 percent of the vote, Gary Hart came out of nowhere to defeat Mondale in New Hampshire by 10 points, an example of the electorate’s unwillingness to accept the conventional wisdom or do what they are told.  (Mondale went on to win the nomination, pledge to raise taxes and lose in a landslide.  Hart went on to be what Hunter S. Thompson called “the closest thing we’ve had to a president-in-waiting that anybody in this generation will ever see,” at least until the Monkey Business set sail with his career.)

The state’s large contingent of Independents also keeps pollsters guessing, and is given credit for John McCain’s smackdown of Bush 43 in 2000 (before Bush turned things around in South Carolina, despite the captain of the Straight Talk Express’s willingness to obfuscate about the Confederate flag in the Palmetto State).

The polls show a tight race in New Hampshire, but don’t be surprised if the state proves to be a true swing state – by swinging more than expected to one candidate … or the other.

Prediction:  Obama by 4 points.

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