Did Shell just admit that we have hit peak oil?

Peak Oil has been hotly debated for many years. It is generally agreed (aside from a few on the fringe) that the Earth has a finite amount of oil. The question has always been at what point will it start to run out and that point is what is known as peak oil- the point where we are extracting as much as can be extracted. After that, wells dry up, slowly at first, and the price of oil steadily rises.

Many scientists and environmentalists have been warning that we have either hit peak oil already or that we are about to. The petroleum industry has, so far, been on the side of people claiming it’s a long way off.

Until now, that is. From The Seitch Blog:

Shell today published Signals and Signposts – a report into future energy scenarios which their look at global developments in the world’s energy supply, use and needs.

Frankly its kind of shocking, you don’t need to look too hard between the lines to see that they are scared. They more of less come right out and say that even with new discoveries and efficiency measure there simply wont be enough oil (energy) for everyone that wants it, and that a return to the “price boom,” that was interrupted when the economy fell apart, could (and probably will) return. They also say (in their special oil company speak) that global warming is going to be a big problem, and going to get bigger.

‘Kind of shocking’ is putting it mildly. When the even the oil companies are admitting that there is a problem, we are in serious trouble.

What are we doing about it? Very little. As Jon Stewart pointed out recently, the last seven presidents have promised us energy independence and haven’t delivered it and all energy independence means is we stop relying on foreign oil, not stop relying on oil completely. In his State of the Union Address this year, President Obama made the step of promising to reduce our greenhouse emissions by 80% (again, not directly related to oil, but close)… by 2050.

What to expect in the future? Gas prices are already on the increase and that looks unlikely to stop. We will pass that magical $5 a gallon and barely notice. Food prices will also go up due both to our dependence on trucks for food transport and because global food prices are already at record highs. The industrialize world will probably not feel any major effects for a while now. I’m not suggesting we all head for our fallout shelters* because the sky is falling, but I do believe that we are on a major decline the likes of which we have not seen in living memory. I wish I could be optimistic about this, but I just don’t think we’redoing enough to stop the snowball rolling down the hill.

Sorry to bring you all down on an already gloomy Monday, but this was too important not to share.

* The house I’m renting happens to have a really poorly-built fallout shelter. Article on that coming soon.