Politics

This story is a joint effort by Waspy, BBQ Cornnuts, Lady_E, Dürers Rhino, and The Grand Inquisitor.

Demonstrations and riots are sweeping through the Middle East and North Africa this week as protestors, emboldened by the success of the Egyptian Revolution, have demanded reform from their own governments. Demonstrators and government security personnel have been killed in several counties. According to the Associated Press, Hillary Clinton urged civic leaders in effected countries to “seize the historic moment for democratic change

In Libya, where Muammar Gaddafi has been in power since 1969, demonstrators are organizing for Thursday commemoration of the 2006 deaths of 14 protesters. Dissidents have organized a Facebook group is calling for a February 17 Intifada.

Pro-government demonstrators showed support at Sunday’s prayers to commemorate the birth of the prophet. The government is also making an effort to discredit the opposition. Libya is facing unrest in part because of government-subsidized housing projects. Many homes are not completed and thousands of residents are without a place to live.

Dissidents have circulated a petition emphasizing “the right of the Libyan people to express their opinions in peaceful protest, without any form of harassment, threats or provocations” by the regime. The opposition also called on Gaddafi and his family to relinquish authority and “revolutionary, political, military, and security” powers.

In Iraq, citizens of the city Fallujah protested to demand a stop to arbitrary arrests. They also asked the government to resume conscription and to dismiss any foreign citizens, including Americans, from government positions. They also accused the Talabani administration of corruption. Local officials joined in the demonstration and called for basic services, such as rations and electricity.

Meanwhile, unrest has continued in Iran. Two people were killed and dozens were injured during Monday’s protests. New clashes broke out on Wednesday at the funeral in Tehran of a student who was killed in a recent protest. The government blamed the killing on anti-government protesters, but conflicting reports suggest security forces might have been responsible.  While information has been difficult to get out of the country, some estimates have put protest numbers at 350,000 people. In what has become a familiar cycle, Iranian pro-government forces have called for a counter-demonstration against the opposition leaders. In turn, opposition leaders Mir-Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, who are under house arrest, have called for more anti-government protests.

Yemen is in its sixth day of protests calling for democracy. Dwindling oil reserves and a looming water crisis have motivated an increasingly impoverished public to call for regime change. The President, Ali Abdullah Saleh, has been in power since 1978. He has attempted to quell the protests by announcing that he will not seek re-election in 2013, urging the public to use democratic solutions rather than violence, and entering talks with individual tribes to bolster support for his government. However, the demonstrations have become increasingly violent as police, military, and plainclothes government supporters have attempted to disperse protestors. Police shot and killed two demonstrators in the main southern city of Aden and several people were wounded in the capitol city of Sanaa.

In Bahrain, protests continued into a third day. Ruled by a centuries-old Constitutional Monarchy, Bahrain’s Sunni minority and King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa have been accused of discrimination against the country’s 66% Shia majority. Demonstrations calling for fair representation in Parliament have become more peaceful after police killed two protesters and the King subsequently issued a rare apology on Monday. Demonstrators are setting up a “Protest Camp” in the capitol’s Pearl Roundabout Park and have stated that they will not leave until their demands are met.

The Washington Post is reporting on a potentially explosive development.  In a speech delivered to Jewish American leaders and later repeated in an official press release, Israeli Foreign Prime Minister, Avigdor Lieberman, claimed that two Iranian warships are preparing to enter the Suez Canal, a move that Israel would view as highly provocative.  Mr. Lieberman also claimed that the warships were crossing the Canal to reach Syria, an Iranian ally, presumably to deliver weapons for Hezbollah to use against Israel.  Mr. Lieberman offered no evidence to back up his claims and Egyptian authorities denied the report.  Egypt requires 48 hours notice for entry into the Suez Canal.   However, the US State Department did confirm the two ships were in the Red Sea near the Canal.

The possibility of an Israeli-Iranian conflict poses serious concerns for the region, Egypt’s transitional government, and the anti-government movement in Iran. A confrontation between Israel and Iran could halt the reform movements region-wide dead in their tracks and divert media and world attention from the current uprisings, a situation which would have additional perils for protests that have seen state sanctioned violence slightly curtailed in recognition of the attention focused on the government responses.

The former Mubarak regime considered Iran to be the greatest threat to regional stability and Egypt’s 1979 Peace Treaty with Israel and assistance in enforcing the blockade of Gaza put Egypt in direct opposition with the Iranian government.  The Treaty and blockade are widely unpopular among the Egyptian population, but, this past Sunday, the current Egyptian military government released Communiqué No. 5 pledging to abide by all of Egypt’s foreign treaties and commitments, which includes the Peace Treaty, during the transitional period.  A direct challenge to the Egyptian-Israeli alliance by Iran could greatly complicate the military’s already precarious role as a caretaker government and potentially derail constitutional and statutory reforms that the military has pledged to oversee.

Iran is currently facing the largest anti-Regime protests since the 2009 Green Revolution. A confrontation with Israel would allow the Iranian government to rally the nation against Israel and could lead to deadly violence and treason charges (which carry the death penalty) against any protest participants.  It is not out of the realm of possibility that this is a strategic plan by the Iranian government to undermine both the Egyptian military and its domestic opponents.

While the potential consequences of this report being true are alarming, Mr. Lieberman is well known for issuing dire, and later found to be untrue claims, about Iran and her allies.  Mr. Lieberman is considered by many to be a far-right, anti-Arab hardliner by many and while his party (the Yisrael Beytenu Party) is a part of the new coalition government, they are not the largest in the three party Coalition.  In this Q&A interview in Newsweek, Mr. Lieberman gives a good overview of his positions, his attitude towards Arabs and his view of the Peace process with Palestinians.  Finally, The United States would likely use its influence with Israel to attempt to dissuade any retaliatory response that could undermine the pro-democracy movements taking place.

Demonstrations are expected to continue throughout the rest of the week throughout the Middle East and North Africa. Watch all the action here.