Tonight America’s long national nightmare comes to an end. Or a beginning, depending. Joins us for the exciting season finale of the most horrible reality tv show ever made. Here are some things to bear in mind as the long darkness descends.
First, nothing is going to happen until after 7:00 PM Eastern. (All the times I refer to will be Eastern, by the way.) Take it easy. Don’t read any news before then. Don’t check 538. Nate Silver has nothing to tell you now. DO NOT watch CNN or any of the cable news sausage factories. They won’t have anything to tell you, and they’ll just spend the day killing time by stoking your fear and dread.
Things to watch for (I’ll update some of these as the night progresses):
- How soon states are called after the polls close there. Here’s a handy link to the New York Times map of poll closing times. If states aren’t very close, they can be called relatively quickly. Polls close in Vermont at 7:00. They’ll probably call Vermont by 7:10. Here’s the 270toWin interactive map if you want to keep track of states as they are called or game out electoral college scenarios.
- How does this compare to 2012? Are states being called at the same rate? Do some states seem to be taking longer? Here is a the AP list of times that states were called in 2012.
- Key early races: Virginia, New Hampshire, and Georgia. Polls close there at 7:00. Romney won Georgia easily, and they called it a little after 8:00. If they don’t call Georgia for Trump by 8:30 or so, that could be the first sign that he’s underperforming Romney. Virginia and New Hampshire are key parts of Clinton’s firewall. They may be close for a while. If either gets called for Trump, that would be a sign Clinton is in some serious trouble. If either (or both) get called for Clinton before 10:00, that’s a sign that Trump is on his way to becoming a loser. Sad!
- UPDATE: 6:38 PM Here’s a link to the Talking Points Memo election map. They’ll be updating President, Senate, and House races.
- 6:40 Heartwarming story of Donald Trump being booed as he goes to vote. God bless New York.
- 6:43 EXIT POLLS ARE LARGELY BULLSHIT. DO NOT FREAK OUT ABOUT THEM.
- 7:10 Vermont for Clinton.
VERMONT CALLED FOR HILLARY CLINTON. IT HAS BEGUN. Indiana. Trump. Meh. UPDATE: 8:10 Clinton pulls ahead in electoral votes, projected to win Mass. NJ, Del., MD., DC. Trump takes Oklahoma.
