BREAKING: Crisis in Pakistan

Bush_and_Zardari_2008-9-23

The Supreme Court of Pakistan has today ordered the arrest of Prime Minister Raja Pervez Ashraf on corruption charges. 

While in most democratic countries this would be cause for muted celebration of the triumph of the law over power, in Pakistan it is the centre of complex events involving the military and hardline Islamists only months before elections scheduled for May.  It is entirely possible that Ashraf is or was corrupt, and equally possible that the truth or otherwise of the charges had nothing to do with the arrest order. Ashraf seems unlikely to go without a fight, so this incident may bring to a head whatever coup is in the works. We can all only hope that no-one crazy gets hold of Pakistan’s nuclear weapon codes: you’d better believe that the Indian army has begun calling back soldiers from leave.

Some further useful background facts to know:

  • Since Pakistan became ostensibly democratic, no government has ever been removed at an election, only by coup or forced resignation (the most recent being the resignation of General Musharraf in 2008). Perhaps it was too much to hope that we would actually get to the 2013 elections without another coup.
  • The previous Prime Minister, Gilani, lost power when the Supreme Court had him arrested and then ordered him jailed “until the rising of the court” (about 30 seconds), a symbolic conviction that nonetheless disqualified him from being Prime Minister. A pattern emerges! The President, Zardari, remains in power so in theory there is no power vacuum just yet, but Ashraf was his right hand man and the Court’s decision is being taken as a direct challenge to Zardari’s grip on power, especially because…
  • Muslim cleric Tahir ul Qahir has been whipping up demonstrations, or trying to (on the one hand, yesterday’s demonstrations were big enough to rate a tear gas attack from police loyal to the government, and on the other hand media reports suggest only tens of thousands of demonstrators, not the “Million Man March” claimed by Qahir). Depending on who you ask, he’s an Islamist or a tool of the army commanders. It isn’t lost on anyone that in a big speech he gave the night before the Court’s decision, he referred to the court and the army as the only two functioning institutions in Pakistan and called both Zardari and Ashraf corrupt. Certainly Zardari and Ashraf’s supporters are busily claiming that Qahir is really a stooge for another military coup, which of course doesn’t make it true but also doesn’t make it false.
  • Qahir had been living in Canada for 8 years before returning to Pakistan last month to lead the demonstrations, so it’s pretty clear he’s the frontman for SOMEONE. You don’t become the leader of massive demonstrations in one month without some kind of machine preparing the way. Also, BLAME CANADA.

Perhaps by now you’re saying “These guys all sound as bad as each other! Who’s the good guy, Baldwin?”

Well, Zardari got where he is because he was the husband of Benazir Bhutto, the one-time democratically-elected President of Pakistan who got assassinated while running for President again after General Musharraf resigned. Zardari’s popular support after the death of his wife resulted in him being elected in place of Musharraf and in theory he was leading up to new democratic elections.  He’s been very friendly to the US and their drone-strikes (although there’s probably a quid pro quo for that behind the scenes). So he’s the good guy right?  On the other hand, he’s tried pretty hard to quash other rivals, such as trying to pass laws to prevent his rival Nawaz Sharif running for office.  He’s been pretty much openly at war with the judiciary for his entire term of office. And the only reason he wasn’t arrested on corruption charges in both Pakistan and Switzerland years ago is his sovereign immunity as head of state.

So yeah, they are probably are all as bad as each other. But for the sake of the people of Pakistan, I think we can all hope that this shakes out with minimal bloodshed and with free and fair democratic elections going ahead in a few months time rather than another military coup or an “election” campaign dominated by an intimidation campaign by the army, Islamists, Zardari’s people, or all of the above.

This is a breaking story, and it will be of more than academic interest to see how it develops.

Picture via Wikimedia Commons

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