With American embassies all over the Middle East and North Africa under attack, the Western media has for the most part ignored a potentially greater geopolitical flashpoint. Though an outright conventional (or nuclear) war between China and Japan is very unlikely, their fight over some tiny islands will certainly escalate.
The Senkaku Islands (as the Japanese call them; the Chinese call them the Diaoyu Islands) are a group of five small uninhabited islands and three rocks in the East China Sea between China and Japan. The area surrounding the islands may have oil and commercial fishing fleets also ply the waters there. Fundamentally, the dispute is not about oil or fish. It’s really about power, history, and not losing face.
The Chinese claim that they have controlled the islands since the 14th century. When Japan became a colonial power, it seized the islands in 1895. Japan kept the islands until the end of World War II. America administered them after the war and returned them to Japan in 1972. In July and August, Chinese activists landed on the islands and unfurled Chinese flags. The Chinese government then sent six surveillance ships to patrol the islands, claiming that it is merely protecting its own territory.
This weekend, tens of thousands of Chinese citizens protested in more than a dozen cities in China, including Beijing, Xian, Qingdao, and Tianjin. The Japanese embassy was vandalized and there have been reports of Japanese citizens being assaulted. Japanese cars have been overturned and set on fire and Japanese restaurants and stores looted. In contrast, the reaction in Japan over the dispute has been muted and peaceful.
What has lead up to this? Though the Chinese have always thought of themselves as the center of the world and the greatest civilization in history, it was not always the superpower it is known to be today. Due to inept imperial governance in the 19th century, China was carved up by European powers. Japan took advantage of China’s chaos and weakness by invading it in the 1930s and holding onto the country until the end of World War II. The horrific crimes against humanity perpetrated by the Japanese occupiers, of which the Rape of Nanking is just one example, have devastated the Chinese psyche, for it showed China as weak and helpless. The Chinese have held a grudge against the Japanese ever since for this humiliation.
More recently, China had antiquated weapons and a poor populace known for riding bicycles and wearing cheap Mao suits. But in the last twenty years, China has seen phenomenal growth. Now that it is finally a global superpower again, it appears to want to flex its muscles and settle some scores.
But what’s really going on with the protests in China? Whenever a country is struggling economically, its leaders often find scapegoats to distract the populace. China’s economic growth is grinding to a halt. The housing bubble may burst soon. The one-child policy and gender selection during pregnancies mean there are many more young men than women demographically. Xi Jinping, the next leader of China, disappeared for ten days for unknown reasons. The Chinese government needed a distraction, and the island dispute was the remedy.
Although there is no concrete proof yet that the Chinese government orchestrated the protests, it is at least obvious that the government is allowing the protests to take place relatively unimpeded. If ethnic minorities like Tibetans or Uyghurs or persecuted religious groups like Falun Gong or peasants who have had their land stolen by developers demonstrated, set fire to buildings, and overturned cars, there would be a bloody crackdown. Footage from this week doesn’t show anyone being arrested or even beaten with a baton. The government is happy to see its people distracted.
Despite the fiery rhetoric from the local press and people, China cannot afford to wage war. After World War II, America neutered Japan and made it sign a constitution that rejected warmongering and embraced peace. Japan does not have an army; it has a Self-Defense Force. Having been the only victim of atomic bombing, it does not have nuclear weapons. China does. As an ally, the United States is obligated to defend Japan and has dozens of Army, Navy, Air Force, and Marine bases and stations throughout the country.
In this age of globalization, China and Japan are intertwined as trade partners. If China is the aggressor, America and the European Union, two more trade partners, would side with Japan economically, if not also militarily. China is much more successful in getting its way through soft power – loans, grants, and trade agreements – than force.
So what will happen in the immediate future? China will probably allow the protests to continue but if deaths occur accidentally in any of the protests, the government will likely shut them down. China will keep testing Japan’s limits, maybe even landing troops on the islands to see how Japan will react. Japan is unlikely to forcefully evict the Chinese troops, more than likely opting to go before the United Nations. If it chooses that route, it has to confront China again as it holds a permanent seat on the Security Council.
From a geopolitical and historical viewpoint, this row is fascinating. But to see the hate and uncontrolled anger in so many ordinary people is sad.
For coverage of the dispute, I recommend the Shanghaiist blog and NPR’s Louisa Lim’s Twitter feed.
All images from Shanghaiist.
