The Oscars are coming! Tomorrow morning the nominations will be announced, so HomoViper and Jarrod sat down to finalize predictions.
Best Supporting Actress
Octavia Spencer (The Help)
Berenice Bejo (The Artist)
Jessica Chastain (The Help)
Shailene Woodley (The Descendants)
Melissa McCarthy (Bridesmaids)
Janet McTeer (Albert Nobbs)
HV
Spencer will be riding the Golden Globe wave all the way to the Oscars. Bejo, Chastain and Woodley were all nominated for Globes and have a sufficient amount of buzz surrounding their performances that I think they are safe bets to be nominated here. McCarthy is the wildcard, and she wasn’t nominated for a Globe, but I think the Academy is going to put her back into the mix.
Jarrod
Melissa McCarthy shouldn’t be nominated for Bridesmaids. I mean, yes, women get nominated for comedy and she was the funniest thing about Bridesmaids. However, I just don’t think she was as funny as say…Madeline Kahn in either Paper Moon or Blazing Saddles. I would love to see Janet McTeer win the Oscar, she steals the show in Albert Nobbs. Judy Greer nailed the hysterical crying in The Descendants but she probably won’t get a nomination.
Best Actress
Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady)
Michelle Williams (My Week with Marilyn)
Glenn Close (Albert Nobbs)
Viola Davis (The Help)
Charlize Theron (Young Adult)
Tilda Swinton (We Need To Talk About Kevin)
HV
This is one of the categories where I expect the least amount of surprise. Streep, Williams, Davis and Close are definite nominees. Theron is the wildcard. Could Rooney Mara squeak in instead? Maybe, but I doubt it. Tilda Swinton? Again, it’s possible, but despite the buzz she got as Kevin made the festival rounds, her name has faded from the conversation somewhat.
Jarrod
I’m sick and tired of this category. Streep is going to be hard to beat as M.T. I don’t want Michelle Williams to be nominated. I would love Glenn Close to win and would love to see Kirsten Dunst nominated. I think her performance in Melancholia was the best this year and it should be recognized. Also, Charlize should take Michelle Williams’ place. However, if anyone takes Tilda Swinton’s fifth spot it is likely to be Rooney Mara. We Need To Talk About Kevin really isn’t the type of movie that secures a nomination.
Best Supporting Actor
Albert Brooks (Drive)
Christopher Plummer (Beginners)
Kenneth Branagh (My Week with Marilyn)
Jonah Hill (Moneyball)
Viggo Mortensen (A Dangerous Method)
Nick Nolte (Warrior)
HV
Okay, so those are literally the same five who were nominated for Globes, but honestly I think this was kind of a stinky category this year. Plummer’s the obvious one to beat and will definitely be nominated, and although some of the awards chatter surrounding Brooks has quieted, he’ll still be nominated here no doubt. Branagh’s performance is the type of thing the Academy loves (see: Cate Blanchett’s win for playing Hepburn in The Aviator). Mortensen is possibly the most underrated actor working today and deserves any attention he’s given.
Jarrod
I really don’t want Kenneth B to get a nomination but he will. He’s annoying. Honestly, I would love Robert Forster to get a nomination but his screen time in The Descendants was minimal. Jonah Hill. I don’t know if he should be nominated for Moneyball. He pretty much acts like he does in every other movie. HOWEVER, he can hold the screen pretty well which is good for a fat piece of lard. I think Max Von Sydow will be nominated if Jonah doesn’t make the cut. I also think Nick Nolte will be nominated for Warrior. Also, Corey Stoll definitely stood out in Midnight in Paris and Woody doesn’t have his usual Best Supporting Actress nomination locked up which could leave a very outside chance for Stoll.
Best Actor
George Clooney (The Descendants)
Jean Dujardin (The Artist)
Brad Pitt (Moneyball)
Leonardo DiCaprio (J. Edgar)
Michael Fassbender (Shame)
Ryan Gosling (The Ides Of March)
HV
Clooney and Dujardin are sure bets to be nominated. I think Fassbender is too, even if it’s only for the “it’s an honor just to be nominated” prestige. As Pitt ages, we move dangerously closer to it being His Year; mark my words he’s going to get an inevitable Oscar one of these years, despite his having as much range as a No. 2 pencil. Although there was much advance buzz surrouding Leo’s performance in J. Edgar, that buzz has since died down; still, the Academy loves that type of performance, and he will likely be nominated.
Jarrod
This category is pretty locked. However, there has been a late surge of Oscar talk for Gary Oldman in Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy and less talk about Leonardo DiCaprio. It’s possible but unlikely that he won’t make the cut. I’m thinking George Clooney will win. I’m also not sure about Fassbender and think Gosling will pull an upset.
Best Original Screenplay
The Artist
Midnight in Paris
Bridesmaids
J. Edgar
Shame
50/50
Young Adult
HV
The first two scripts came from writer-directors whose films have been critically lauded and received love from the various guilds and the HFPA. Say what you will about Bridesmaids, but the film is widely loved and I think it will definitely get a nom here. Shame may be a long shot, but I think if the film gets any nominations at all, it will be in this category (and of course Fassbender for Best Actor). J. Edgar might also be a long shot, but the Academy has already shown Dustin Lance Black some love in the past (Milk) and might do so again, if only in the form of a nomination.
Jarrod
I don’t like Bridesmaids and don’t think it should get a nomination here but it will. I think Young Adult was well written and we know the Academy loves Diablo Cody so it will probably get a nomination. Recently, J. Edgar hasn’t been getting talked about much and probably won’t get a nomination.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Moneyball
The Help
The Descendants
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
The Ides of March
Drive
HV
I know how everyone feels about The Help, but I also know that it was very popular and will probably get a nomination here without a problem. Moneyball also has a nomination easily sewn up, as does Hugo. I think this is one of the few categories where Dragon Tattoo will be nominated. Both Hugo and The Descendants have a lot of steam built up heading into this race.
Jarrod
HV is probably right about Hugo but I feel like they won’t completely ignore Drive. I liked Dragon Tattoo but the fact that it has already been adapted into a screenplay irks me. It might get a nomination in this category but I’m not so sure.
Best Animated Feature
Rango
Arthur Christmas
The Adventures of Tintin
Cars 2
HV and Jarrod
This. We are acting like Puss in Boots doesn’t exist and won’t be nominated if it happened to be an actual thing.
Best Director
Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist)
Alexander Payne (The Descendants)
Martin Scorsese (Hugo)
Woody Allen (Midnight in Paris)
David Fincher (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo)
Terrence Malick (The Tree of Life)
HV
The first four I’m extremely confident about. My including Fincher may turn out to be pure wish fulfillment since Tattoo has not proven to be especially buzzed about when it comes to awards; still, he is overdue for a win in this category! Could Spielberg squeak in instead? It’s possible, but honestly, has any film this season been snubbed as hard as War Horse has been snubbed? Well, besides Extremely Overwrought and Incredibly Manipulative; Daldry is one name I’m, uh, extremely confident about leaving off this list of nominees.
Jarrod
I’m going to go with Malick over Fincher but don’t think Fincher is that much of a stretch.
Best Picture
The Artist
Hugo
The Descendants
The Help
Midnight in Paris
My Week with Marilyn
Bridesmaids
Moneyball
HV
The rules for this category were changed once again so that there may be between five and ten nominees. I think these are all pretty sure bets. Outliers that may possibly squeak in: War Horse, Moneyball, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Young Adult.
Jarrod
The way they are tallying votes is kind of strange this year so there is no telling how many films will make the cut. However, I’m going to guess that Bridesmaids won’t and Moneyball will.
